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ANZ Research said second-quarter data due next week is expected to show further weakness in the labour market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7 per cent from 4.3 per cent, slightly above the central bank’s forecast of 4.6 per cent.
The private sector labor cost index (including overtime pay) is expected to increase by 3.6% year-on-year, compared with 3.8% in the first quarter, while the growth rate of private sector average hourly earnings (usually hours) is also expected to slow to 3.8%.
“This is the last major data release before the August monetary policy statement, with markets currently pricing in more than a 65% chance of a rate cut,” ANZ said. “We think data close to our forecasts is unlikely to prompt the central bank to act so early.”
“But if the recent weakness in forward-looking indicators persists and second-quarter data confirm that the labor market is easing, it could increase the likelihood of an economic stimulus package being launched in October.”
According to the latest statistics from the NZX, in the six months to June, the total number of stock transactions fell 19.8% to 3.916 million, and the transaction value fell 8.1% to NZ$15.5 billion, of which 62.9% were on-exchange transactions. The average size of on-exchange transactions was NZ$2,463, an increase of 9.9%. The total financing amount was NZ$6.33 billion, a decrease of 11.5%.
The New Zealand dollar is currently trading at 58.9 US cents, down from 61.5 US cents on July 8.
Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare rose 64 cents, or 2.02 per cent, to $32.30, while a2 Milk rose 31 cents, or 4.04 per cent, to $7.99, almost doubling since reaching $4.04 in November. However, a2 Milk’s price is still a far cry from its high of $21.74 reached on August 18, 2020.
Mainfreight rose $1.44, or 1.98 percent, to $73.99; Port of Tauranga rose 9 cents to $5.58; Briscoe Group rose 12 cents, or 2.81 percent, to $4.39; Eroad rose 5 cents, or 3.88 percent, to $1.34; and NZME rose 3 cents, or 2.88 percent, to $1.07.
Third Age Health rose 11c, or 6.47 per cent, to $1.81, Steel & Tube gained 4c, or 4.04 per cent, to $1.03, Marsden Maritime Holdings rose 9c, or 2.69 per cent, to $3.44 and 2 Cheap Cars rose 2c, or 2.35 per cent, to 87c.
Among property companies, Kiwi rose 2.5 cents, or 2.86 per cent, to 90 cents, Argosy gained 2 cents, or 1.89 per cent, to $1.08 and Asset Plus added 1 cent, or 4.76 per cent, to 22 cents.
Vector shares rose 2c to $3.71 after the company conditionally agreed to sell its liquefied petroleum gas business Ongas and its 60.25 per cent stake in Liquigas Limited for $150 million.
Accordant Group’s share price rose from 43 cents on July 10 to 65 cents on July 29 (up 51.16%), before remaining unchanged at 67 cents following an inquiry from the NZX. Accordant said it was complying with its ongoing disclosure obligations.
ANZ Group fell 60 cents, or 1.86 per cent, to $31.60, Gentrack fell 19 cents, or 1.84 per cent, to $10.11, Green Cross Health fell 2 cents, or 2.22 per cent, to 88 cents, ikeGPS fell 3 cents, or 4.05 per cent, to 71 cents and Rakon fell 2 cents, or 2.33 per cent, to 84 cents.
Fast food chain Restaurant Brands fell 14 cents, or 4.39 per cent, to $3.05, while Burger Fuel fell 1.5 cents, or 4.84 per cent, to 29.5 cents.
Santana Minerals shares fell 2.5 cents to $1.39 after the company reported high-grade gold discoveries during a resource definition drilling program at its Bendigo-Ophir project in Central Otago, ahead of a pre-feasibility study.
Santana plans to produce 110,000 ounces of gold per year over 10 years, with revenues of $4.4 billion (at a gold price of $3,900 per ounce) and net profits of $2 billion. Total production costs are estimated at $1,392 per ounce, of which $1.7 billion will remain in New Zealand through taxes, royalties and dividends.
Promisia Healthcare shares were flat at $0.001 cent, having raised $3 million under its share purchase plan and placement, and is expected to confirm the financing for its purchase of two retirement villages in Cromwell.
New Talisman Gold Mines fell 0.001c, or 5.26 per cent, to 1.8c after raising $1.805 million through a rights issue to enable the company to identify its processing site and start bulk sampling at the Mystery Vein at its Karangahake Gorge mine.
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