South Africa’s president’s re-election thanks to “black-white alliance”

Cyril Ramaphosa has another beat. Meanwhile, another African country, Rwanda, has withdrawn its signature from the Global Peace Summit communique. Gazeta.ua talks about relations on the African continent.

Quiet and peaceful, but not quiet

Before we wrote About the elections and political crisis in the Republic of South Africa (RSA). There, the African National Congress, which had been in power for 30 years, lost its majority in parliament. Its leader was once a world-famous Nelson MandelaAccording to the parliamentary election results, the ANC failed to reach more than 50%, and the second most popular party in the election was the Democratic Alliance Party (YES) led by a white leader. Jack Steenhuizen. Since the South African president is elected by parliament, the ANC faces the need for negotiations. In addition to “YES”, “Spear of the Nation” also gained the sympathy of voters Jacob ZumaFormer South African President, Current President’s Worst Enemy Cyril Ramaphosa. Among the leaders are “economic justice fighters” Julius Malema. This was a radical left-wing party that called for the confiscation of land from white owners.

Secret conspiracy

Since starting consultations with the parties (immediately after the election), then-President Cyril Ramaphosa found himself embroiled in a scandal: some members of his party, led by Fikile Mbalula, accused him of secret negotiations with YES. Ramaphosa, like Steenhuisen, publicly denied any contact. But Mbalula was expected to become president, especially as Jacob Zuma expressed his willingness to form a coalition government without Ramaphosa.

In response, Ramaphosa announced the formation of a so-called government of national unity: negotiations with all parties that wished to join in. This precedent occurred after the ANC won the first democratic election in 1994.

Unexpected ending

On June 14, it became known that Fikile Mbalula and his ANC supporters were partly right, as the party signed a coalition government agreement with YES.This is a deal to save our country and build a prosperous future for everyone.“,” Point out John Steinhuisen.

“A new era for the country,” Ramaphosa echoed, because “it’s time to overcome our differences and work together.”

In fact, it is the most striking political change in South Africa since the ANC won the election in 1994, as “YES” expresses the interests of the predominantly white citizens, residents of large cities, the business community and the BroadCast Unitedligentsia. For Ramaphosa, the alliance threatens to split the ANC, but Mbalula welcomed the new agreement.

The reaction of the warrior leader Julius Malema was predictable: he criticised this “marriage of convenience” which, in his view, consolidated “the white monopoly of power over the South African economy and the means of production”.

On June 14, Parliament re-elected Cyril Ramaphosa as president for a second term. The inauguration ceremony will take place on June 19. This brings new opportunities not only for South Africa, but also for Ukraine.

Greetings from the invaders

There is no doubt that Ramaphosa faces strong opposition, as both parties have called for his resignation, and the alliance with white political forces is a throwback to the apartheid era. At least that’s how Maibuye “Melissizwe” Mandela, the great-grandson of Nelson Mandela, sees the new alliance. He believes that ideologically, the ANC is linked to Jacob Zuma’s “Warriors…” and “Spear of the Nation”, which should belong in the government.

The composition of the government, which will be announced at Ramaphosa’s inauguration on June 19, remains the main intrigue.

For Ukraine, the ANC-YES alliance means new opportunities: John Steenhuisen advocates for helping our country in the fight against the Russian Federation. It is noteworthy that Russia did not welcome Ramaphosa until June 18. Putin discussed with him the issues of deepening the partnership. Lukashenko, unlike the masters of the Kremlin, also joined in the congratulations and congratulated the ANC-YES alliance. He believes that this approach helps unite people to face modern global challenges.

Ukraine becomes a ‘hot topic’ on Africa’s agenda

The Russian-Ukrainian war may become one of the key issues in the relationship between Russia, Belarus and South Africa after Ramaphosa is re-elected. This sentence indirectly indicates this LukashenkoTo the old and new presidents: He reminded that South Africa in Eastern Europe has a reliable friend in the Non-Aligned Movement – Belarus.

The details of Lukashenko’s congratulations to Ramaphosa are quite eloquent if we remember that the Non-Aligned Movement unites more than 100 countries of the world that do not join military-political blocs. Moreover, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus stressed that officially Minsk has not formally joined any such bloc.

After all, “yes” means deepening relations with the West. Suppose, with such an alliance, it is not impossible to establish relations with military-political blocs. For example, with NATO. Ramaphosa extended his greetings to Russia for the participation in the “BRICS + Partner Countries” International Inter-Party Forum and noted in particular: “We work to achieve peace between the Russian Federation and NATO countries”. In addition, in August 2022, during his trip to Africa, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented the White House’s new strategy for sub-Saharan countries to South Africa, emphasizing geopolitical importance and equal partnership.

In any case, Kiev officials can look forward to the revival of relations with South Africa. The Russian Foreign Ministry has been preparing for this since November 2023.

Pro-Western tendencies

The agreement with YES and the strengthening of the pro-Western orientation in South Africa’s foreign policy were expected. The National Strategic Research Institute (NISI) of Ukraine draws attention to the fact that as early as August 2023, the ANC opposition political forces, led by YES, signed a multi-party charter. This strategy worked: in total they won 119 of the 400 seats in the lower house of the country’s parliament. Therefore, it is better for the ruling party to negotiate with the more powerful party.

“For Ukraine, the formation of a new government in South Africa could create favorable conditions for restarting bilateral relations“, – consider Analysis is not.

The fact that more than 50% of South African citizens surveyed believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violated the principles of international law also adds to the optimism. Another 61% believe that Russia is responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, said an analyst from the OPORA social movement. Andrei Savchuk, A 2022 study found that three-quarters of the South African population condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Ramaphosa’s stance, therefore, did not align with popular sentiment, and the election proved that.

Under the influence of the pro-Western “YES” stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and under pressure from South African citizen sentiment, Ramaphosa can and should change the tone of his foreign policy.

This is indirectly evidenced by the story of Rwanda’s signature in the final communiqué of the Global Peace Summit: it simply disappeared from the list. At the same time, relations between Rwanda and Ukraine have strengthened in recent years. In particular, this year our country opened an embassy in Rwanda and Vladimir Zelensky met with the country’s president. But the African country only recently restored diplomatic relations with South Africa. If South Africa sends a tangible signal of strengthening engagement with the West, then Rwanda, whose army invaded the Democratic Republic of the Congo in July 2023, may have good reasons to withdraw its signature on the communiqué. This requires respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.