Overnight, a million people “disappeared”. Experts say the Kremlin does not intend to repeat this

“In this respect, the Russian regime was lucky that no large cities had to be evacuated. Although many people were evacuated, they were from small towns and villages, so their ability to sway public opinion in Russia was relatively small,” Romantsov explained. Until now, Russian citizens have been affected by the war only on an individual level, but now, according to political geographers, the conflict has affected many people across the board.

Romantsov said that the regime had already solved a similar “reputation” problem in September 2022, when the first large-scale mobilization was carried out and a million people “disappeared” from Russia overnight. “These people came from large cities. Since then, the Putin regime has been very careful not to let this happen again. But now they are facing this situation,” the expert said.

Those who decided to stay in the Kursk region are now facing direct confrontation with Ukrainian soldiers and receiving fundamentally different information. “Perhaps they are beginning to lose track of what things are and why they are happening, which they previously received from Russian sources,” Romantsov explained.

Romantsov said that apart from a few individuals who openly oppose the Russian invasion and Putin himself, no relevant forces have a chance to destabilize or even replace the regime. “However, the fact is that Russia always looks very unitary and stable, and then it suddenly collapses,” warned the expert on the events of the last century. But he added that outside observers could not predict these critical moments in advance. “So anything can happen, but unfortunately, at the moment I do not see such a point of view,” he said in the interview.

The fact that the originally scheduled three-day war has lasted for more than 900 days cannot be ignored, according to the political geographer. “If we look at 1917 or the 1990s, when Russia collapsed, it was always a period of great challenges and stress. And the regime, although strong, was no longer strong enough to cope with all the small crises that occurred,” describes Romantsov. Romantsov believes that the duration of the conflict itself does not change anything. “But the fact is that, although the Russian regime is still stable at the moment, it has been under pressure for 915 days. (The interview was filmed on Tuesday, August 27, editor’s note). It certainly does him no good,” he concluded.

You can watch the entire interview in the video below, or listen to it in your favorite podcast app. What’s it about?

00:08-05:41 Will the war last longer than the Kremlin initially thought? Can Moscow afford not to launch an offensive and larger retaliation? Does Putin have to be angry after Ukraine invaded Kursk? Will large-scale Russian attacks continue to occur?

05:41-09:14 How much air superiority does Russia have after two and a half years of war? Could Moscow consider the activation of Polish fighter jets as a partial success? Are there people around Putin who might disagree with the form of certain operations?

09:14-16:05 How much did Ukraine suffer from the invasion of the Kursk region? Why did the Russian military command fail to foresee the Kursk invasion in time? What is the current situation of the Ukrainian offensive? And does this move have the potential to weaken the Russian army?

16:05-25:00 How much of an impact have recent events had on Russia’s power structure? Has this action damaged Russia’s strong image? And what is the mood in Russian society right now?

25:00-30:12 Is there any opposition left within Russia that could curb Putin’s efforts? How often do defectors move in? What keeps Putin’s regime afloat geopolitically?

30:12-33:47 Under what conditions could a peace summit be held? What should it entail? Will Russia use the general exhaustion from the war to force Ukraine to surrender?

Spotlight Aktuálně.cz – Michael Romancov | Video: Team Spotlight