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Trump leads in polls in all swing states. American experts say Biden still has a chance.
– No president in nearly 50 years has had such a low chance of reelection as Biden since Jimmy Carter in 1980. But US researcher Hilmar Mjelde told VG that we can never ignore the incumbent president.
Statistically, it is more common for an incumbent president to win reelection than to lose.
But U.S. experts say things now look dark for Biden for several reasons:
- Trump gets stronger Assassination attemptThe image of his clenched fist has become iconic, and the fact that it is Trump who is under attack makes it more difficult for Biden to focus on the divisive candidate with his dangerous rhetoric.
- A lot of attention has been paid to the fact that Biden is old. The 81-year-old has performed better than he has in previous events. Disastrous debate against Trump (78), but also made new mistakes, e.g. Putin called Ukrainian President Zelensky.
- Trump now leads in polls in most of the battleground states that will decide the election. Biden will have to win three of them if he wants to have any chance.
He has to win here.
The seven swing states with the most even results in the last election were: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden won every state except North Carolina in the 2020 election. This year, Trump has been ahead in all seven polls — and that was before the debate, which was described as a political disaster for Biden.
– For ten months, Trump has maintained a small but steady lead. Mjelde said that from today, he is on track to win the election.
He added:
– I also think the polls may be underestimating Trump because he always performs better on Election Day than the polls indicate ahead of time.
Biden performed well in most swing states, but the situation was more evenly balanced in some states.
– Right now, Biden might only win the swing states in the upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But it’s true, it’s true.
That’s enough: If Biden wins these three states, plus the states and regions he won by a wide margin last time, he could end up with exactly 270 electoral votes, compared to 268 for Trump.
Here’s how big Trump’s average lead is in swing state polls as of July 15, 2024, according to statistics website FiveThirtyEight.
Four traditionally Republican states were also designated as “tipping points” in the last election — Texas, Florida, Ohio and Iowa. They are no longer considered that this year.
– Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are critical for Biden. If he doesn’t win there, history suggests he could also lose states like Virginia and Minnesota because it would indicate widespread voter dissatisfaction with him, Midjed said.
I have to prove that I’m not too old.
Eirik Løkke, an American expert and consultant to Civita, doubts whether the Democratic Party will continue to support Biden.
– Voters think he’s too old. The politically disastrous debate against Trump confirmed their fears. This will continue as long as Biden is the candidate.
To address this, he argues, Biden must hold more press conferences and public meetings in which he speaks off script and demonstrates he has a clear mind.
– He has to prove again and again that he is not too old. But it is a long time before November, and Biden is old. He is sure to fall again.
– Not very attractive
The second thing Luck believes he must deal with is shifting the focus away from himself and onto Trump, the divisive candidate in the country. He then leans on several of Trump’s divisive rhetoric.
– It’s important to remember one thing: Biden is in the White House because he is not Trump, not because he is inherently charismatic or talented. If it were another referendum on Trump like the last election, Biden’s chances would be much better.
After the assassination attempt, Republicans and Trump himself, Called to a meeting. That makes it harder for Democrats to warn that Trump is divisive and dangerous.
But Løkke doesn’t think this will last.
– If Trump makes a political transformation now and becomes a unifying figure, it will be really difficult for Biden, but there is too much anger among Republicans and Trump is Trump.
He said Democrats have done a good job of pausing all attacks and ads and waiting to see how things develop.
– I think it’s hard for the Republican Party and Trump to be consistent.
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