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The latest notification from the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) reminds workers in the essential services sector that they must report to work tomorrow. The reminder is specifically for those stationed in Belize, Corozal Island, Orange Park County, and the islands of San Pedro and Caye Caulker. Essential services include security forces, medical personnel (including ambulance services), immigration and customs, private security companies, utilities (workers and support staff), sanitation workers, social workers, workers in the production sector industries, media workers, employees of the Belize Port Authority, the Governor’s Office, the National Fire Service, Belize Electricity Company Limited, Belize Telemedia Company Limited, Belize Water Company Limited, and Speednet Communications Company Limited (SMART). The NEMO notification also states that the Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport will remain open tomorrow, but the Port of Belize will be closed at 9am until the all-clear. As far as the current status of Hurricane Beryl is concerned, we can tell you that the red flag has been raised, marking the entry into Phase 2 of the National Hurricane Response Plan. This means that the weather impacts of Hurricane Beryl could begin within 48 hours. Tropical and flood warnings have been issued for the Belize, Orange Walk and Corozal regions tonight. The storm is now less than a thousand miles from Belize City and remains a powerful storm despite making landfall in Jamaica. The storm is now heading toward the Cayman Islands and is expected to continue moving northeast. Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon said the storm will then move toward the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken.
Ronald Gordon, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service: “Based on the track, Beryl will continue to move in a west-northwest direction for the remainder of today and turn further west later tonight or tomorrow, Thursday. Beryl is forecast to move south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow as a strong hurricane and then weaken slightly as it moves further into the northwest Caribbean Sea, ultimately making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. The track forecast hasn’t changed much from this morning. It’s still pretty much in the same position as it was before. We remain under a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward to the Mexican border, including the islands of San Pedro and Caye Caulker. Again, residents in those areas are reminded that a Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area. In this case, for the next 36 hours or so. The tropical storm force radius, which is what we’re looking at here, extends southward, the southern quadrant or southern semicircle of the storm, to about 80 miles. If you look at a map between the predicted landfall location and the Mexican border, I would say a little over 100 miles. miles. So we’re looking at that possibility, and like I said, if the system takes the most likely path and moves within the center of the cone, the northernmost part of the watch area could see tropical storm force winds. There’s always that slight chance that it could move to the southern edge of the cone, which would, of course, require us to upgrade it to a warning, a tropical storm warning or even a hurricane warning. It’s a very small chance. Of course, for that particular reason, we’ll continue to monitor. We’ll watch for any slight movement to the west, any change in path, and then make a decision. But we’re not there yet.”
Ever since hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin, forecasters have had difficulty predicting the storm’s exact path and intensity. Given Beryl’s unprecedented change in conditions, Gordon was asked if it was possible that the storm was being pushed south by wind shear in the Caribbean Sea.
Ronald Gordon, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service: “So it’s now due east of Belize City, moving west, northwest. Well, not away, but roughly towards us, but it’s moved north of Belize City. I should emphasize a position, shouldn’t I? As to whether there will be a system that pushes it back, we still don’t know for sure, I don’t want to say there isn’t, there’s always that small chance that you could have some unusual features that could cause that. That could be the rich building is a little bit stronger than the models show. But again, we have to go with the model consensus. There are several models pointing in the same direction, which gives us more confidence that they are seeing the same thing, and therefore they are heading in that general direction. It has weakened compared to 1.45 this morning. It’s down to 5. It’s interacting with the Jamaican terrain, which is also having some effect. But it’s a resilient system. In physics, we have something called inertia. What that means is that a moving force or a moving object resists change, especially when it has high momentum, it’s moving very fast. So, it has a hard time slowing down. And that’s perhaps what we’re seeing in this particular system, given that it was a Category 5 hurricane at one point, it’s slowing down and weakening, it has that resistance. But having said that, all indications are that it will continue to weaken. The forecasts still say it’s going to be a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall, well, it was a Category 1, but it could be a Category 2. The forecasts still say it’s going to be a major hurricane when it passes near the Cayman Islands tomorrow, that’s still the forecast. So again, we know the intensity forecasts, none of them are going to be accurate. Especially the intensity forecasts, there’s some wiggle room. So we’re also watching it to see if it slows down or weakens to the extent that the models are indicating.”
The storm’s strong winds are expected to primarily affect the Yucatan Peninsula, but its current track suggests Belize will see at least 4 to 6 inches of rain. Chief hydrologist Tennille Hendy said rainfall amounts are likely to increase. She noted that showers are expected to cause flooding in several areas.
Tennille Henry, Chief Hydrologist at the National Hydrological Service: “We anticipate that the northern regions are still experiencing ongoing flooding, that will continue, and for those who have already experienced flooding, there will be a compounding effect of flooding given the very conservative 6 inches of rainfall that is projected. Our flood forecasts will be updated as the system progresses, so we will provide updates to our regular stakeholders. So we will update the flood forecast as the system progresses. When the soil is in a normal state, if we want to say, this is not a drought period or severe wildfires affecting soil moisture, the soil is very loose. So it allows water, any element to be absorbed or pass through the dry medium, and then it compacts the soil to a certain extent and reduces the function of any element being able to move through it. So it effectively prevents the functioning of the ecosystem. So if something is hard, nothing can move through it, it just rolls over it. So that’s one of the factors that heavily influences flooding and flood levels and how long floods last, along with the impact of nearby rivers or lagoons or creeks and their ability to absorb the water that flows into those systems. If they’re full, they can’t perform that function. They’re at capacity and the water has to go somewhere, and it’s going to take the path of least resistance, which could be through our yards. If the water level in the wells is low enough, it could flow into our wells. So we need to think about all of these possible scenarios that we haven’t really thought about before. So we absolutely need to protect our domestic wells and cover them if the water level is low enough to prevent any runoff from going into those wells because that runoff can go into the ground and affect not only you but the people downstream from you.”
We note that the storm may change its path and encourage citizens to stay informed through official channels. NEMO will hold another press conference in the morning to discuss any updates.
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