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The late Boris Berezovsky having lunch with editors and senior journalists from the Financial Times in 1999. I had met him several times in Moscow. Berezovsky had just played a role in convincing those around Boris Yeltsin to make the nomination. Vladimir Putinthen head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) Russia (Berezovsky had known Putin when he was deputy mayor of St. Petersburg) became prime minister and then president. “Why,” I asked, “do you entrust power to a former KGB agent?” I remember his answer clearly: “Russia,” he said, “is now a capitalist country. In capitalist countries, capitalists hold power.”
My jaw dropped metaphorically. Berezovsky is a smart, hard-boiled, cynical man who has lived most of his life in the Soviet Union. He is also Russian, and he knows Russia’s brutal history. Yet he seems to believe this Marxist nonsense about power residing in so-called “capitalist” Russia. He is wrong, of course. Power has always been in the hands of the man in the Kremlin. Maybe I was too hard on him. Western leaders seem to think that sanctions on Russian oligarchs can influence Putin. I don’t know why.
In any case, within a year of Putin’s rise, Berezovsky, who had become a harsh critic, was expelled from Russia to Britain. In 2013, he died of suicide or murder..
Berezovsky’s fate illustrates something important. Wealth is the source of power only if it is protected by a state governed by the rule of law. In a despotism, power brings wealth. It is the tyrant’s toy: he can give, but he can also take away.
The United States is not Russia. Donald Trump This is not Putin. However, Trump made it clear that he wants to use the presidency to punish his enemies. In fact, he singled out former Rep. Liz Cheney, then-President Joe Biden Vice President Kamala Harris is their target.
His “justification” is the persecution he believes he is being subjected to. But he is indeed trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Encouraging “patriots” to invade the Capitol on January 6, 2021 And pressured Vice President Mike Pence not to certify the results. The lie that the election was stolen has even become a common belief. Republican Party.
The question that arises is: Are the oligarchs and JD Vance Vice PresidentThe latter declared that he would not certify that election. Are they about to learn what it means to have a tyrant as president? Yes, anyone who attempts a coup against the electoral process (the core of democracy) is a potential tyrant. Therefore, this person can fill his government with people who are personally loyal to him. Then, no one is truly safe except the loyalists and sycophants.
In the past, the power of the US president was checked by strong civic virtues, the decency of political leaders, an independent judiciary and independent political parties. But much of this has been eroded.
Given all this, Trump’s reelection will have global consequences. The damage to democratic credibility is already evident: trust not only in American democracy but in democracy itself. It will get worse.
American liberal democracy is not the only issue at stake. So is America’s future in the world. The New Right in America doesn’t seem to be thinking about giving up Ukraine and possible current members I’ll take it Sanctions on Russia will affect the United States’ ability to ally with Russia ChinaIf I were Japanese, I would be very nervous.
Nor does it seem to occur to them that reneging on trade agreements that the United States itself helped to forge, including at the World Trade Organization, will inevitably make the country look like an unreliable economic partner. Trump, the businessman, is a serial bankrupt. If the United States does this, it will not be able to maintain its credibility as an economic player.
Then there is Trump, who believes not only in high tariffs but also in tax cuts for the wealthy and Americans. Dollar He also believes in low interest rates when it is convenient and does not believe in the independence of the economy. Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve).
One person can support the ideas of a large group of people at the same time Increase the cost of imports through tariffswhich will reduce the US demand for foreign currencies, and it is inconsistent to expect that the dollar will depreciate against these currencies. Normally, the opposite should be true. But if it has Huge fiscal deficit If it expands further and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy, the dollar could actually plummet, just like it did in the 1970s, and that would be a big mess.
What may matter most to the future of the world is not Trump the Tyrant, Trump the Traitor, Trump the Protectionist, or Trump the Devaluer; The man who pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord as presidentOur chances of keeping global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels are now very slim.
If another Trump term undermines hopes for progress, that opportunity will almost certainly evaporate, with potentially disastrous consequences. But Trump, a “very stable genius,” simply “knows” that the greenhouse effect is a hoax. In reality, it is a threat, but we can still overcome the odds. Trump may be a leader doomed to fail.
The Trump-supporting plutocrats are still safer than Berezovsky was. But are they really as free as they want to be? Yes, further erosion of democracy could protect them from elected politicians they hate. But those they appoint to power tend to become absolute rulers. Then no one is truly safe.
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