Medals in Paris? Experts split, Czechs back Ukraine and Jamaica

First, let’s review the performance of the Czech Olympic Games since the dissolution of the federation. The highest increase so far has been the increase in 11 precious metals, which has been achieved three times – Atlanta, London and Tokyo three years ago.

In contrast, the medal count at the Beijing Olympics was the weakest, with the Czech team winning only seven medals (three of which were gold medals).

Seven to eleven medals. This was the framework of most estimates before the Paris Sports Festival. Dannic has contacted former successful Olympic athletesdon’t expect to reach the limit of ten shiny trophies.

“If I can win eight medals, I’ll be satisfied. There could be more, I think our athletes are capable, but let’s not be humble,” said David Svoboda, the 2012 London modern pentathlon champion.

Rowing champion collector Ondřej Synek shares the same view, while cyclist Jaroslav Kulhavý (like the Svoboda Olympic champion from London) is more optimistic.

Population and economic strength determine

Famous athletes evaluate Czech prospects mainly based on personal experience and prospects. But there are more complex ways to get answers to questions from the quotes. For example, experts from the consulting and technology company Deloitte make decisions based on economic and demographic data.

“It would be difficult to estimate medal success based on the latest results of a particular athlete or team. However, we know more about economics, so we again estimated the results using a model by Andrew Bernard and Megan Bass, which uses so-called economic variables to predict Olympic success. The basic idea of ​​this model is that success in sports is related to population size and economic size,” said David Marek, chief economist at Deloitte and author of the forecast.

In short, the larger the population, the higher the incidence of people with special athletic talents. Economic maturity is also important, mainly due to investment in sports fields, stadiums, equipment and youth bases.

What did they achieve at Deloitte? According to this forecast, the Czech team should win 11 medals in Paris, which sounds quite optimistic. As the company points out, before the previous Rio and Tokyo Olympics, their estimates were correct. On the contrary, at the Summer Olympics in Beijing, for example, the economic experts “scored” three medals.

Americans will be the best

Other parts of the world have similar pastimes waiting for the Olympics. For example, she came out Nielsen’s Gracenote Analysiswhich has been dedicated to sports event estimation for a long time. It is based on statistical models of the results of previous Olympic Games, World Championships and other competitions.

The company’s experts believe that the Czech Republic will not reach the threshold of ten medals. In the published ranking of thirty countries that have at least reached this threshold, the Czechs do not appear at all. The most successful should be the United States (112 medals), followed by China (86) and the United Kingdom (63). Motherland France should be fourth with 60 precious metals.

Countries like Jamaica (10 medals), Uzbekistan (12 medals) and Ukraine (13 medals) should be ranked ahead of the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, the bombed country is sending the smallest expedition in history to Paris.

On the other hand, it must be appreciated that before the Tokyo tournament, Gracenote accurately estimated that the Czech team would win 11 precious metals.

Interestingly, Just last winter, Gracenote estimated The Czech Republic won ten medals, three of which were gold (especially Jiri Prskavec, Martin Fuksa and women’s doubles tennis should have won). Since then, statisticians’ confidence in Czech athletes has obviously declined. But this mainly proves that such speculation is mainly interesting – both for the author and for fans.