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Hawaii Volcano Observatory Information Statement
United States Geological Survey
Thursday, August 8, 2024, 8:13 PM HT (Friday, August 9, 2024, 06:13 UTC)
Kilauea (VNUM#332010)
19°25’16” N 155°17’13” W, summit elevation 4091 feet (1247 meters)
Current Volcano Alert Level: Warning
Current Aviation Color Code: Yellow
Summary
Kilauea is not erupting. The rate of ground deformation in the East Central Rift Zone of Kilauea has continued to increase since the East Upper Rift Zone intruded into Hawaii Volcanoes National Park from June 22 to 25. These observations indicate that magma is accumulating underground in the Makaopuhi and Napau crater areas, a well-known magma reservoir in Kilauea’s remote East Central Rift Zone. This statement reviews recent observations and summarizes what may happen next at Kilauea.
Recent Events
Several episodes of strong seismic activity and associated ground deformation between July 22 and 25, 2024, indicate that magma is intruding into Kīlauea’s Upper East Rift Zone (UERZ). More than 1,700 earthquakes occurred during this intrusion, and the ground deformation pattern also changed – Kīlauea’s summit area contracted as magma entered the underground UERZ, while the expansion of the UERZ indicated that magma was accumulating near Pauahi Crater.
During the intrusion, some of the earthquakes were located in the upper part of the Middle East Rift Zone (MERZ) from Maunaulu to Makaopuhi Crater. Beginning on July 23, ground deformation patterns in the MERZ began to show extension and uplift. Over the past week, extension and uplift have continued, but at a slower rate over time. Overall, the area of Makaopuhi Crater has extended by about 12.5 centimeters (5 inches) and uplifted by about 7 centimeters (2.8 inches) since July 23. Beginning on August 8, the POC tiltmeter located on the north side of Pu’u’ō’ō in the Middle East Rift Zone also began to show motion consistent with ongoing MERZ expansion. Ground deformation signals recorded by POC and nearby GPS stations indicate that the center of deformation is still west of Pu’u’ō’ō.
Earthquakes have also continued to occur in the UERZ and MERZ regions since the July 22-25 intrusion. In the UERZ, an average of about 70 earthquakes occur per day, while in the MERZ, an average of about 25 earthquakes occur per day. Most earthquakes are less than magnitude 2 and are located 2.5 to 3.5 kilometers (1.5 to 2.2 miles) below the surface.
At the summit of Kilauea, seismicity has remained low since the UERZ intrusion, and the ground deformation pattern has been showing steady expansion since July 26.
A map showing ground deformation at Kilauea Volcano between July 26 and August 7, 2024 is available here: https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/august-7-2024-insar-image-kilauea-ground-deformation.
explain
Current ground deformation patterns suggest that the magma pathway between the UERZ and upper MERZ has been reestablished and that new magma is being supplied to the storage area near the Makaopuhi crater following the July 22-25 intrusion. This new magma could be from the most recent intrusion, but it could also contain components from the summit. In either case, ground deformation rates suggest that the magma supply rate has decreased over the past two weeks and continues to decrease. Future unrest in the region could lead to additional intrusions and/or eruptions.
These recent changes suggest that magma is repressurizing Kīlauea’s summit storage area, while also refilling a long-standing storage area near Makaopuhi Crater in the upper MERZ. Pulses of magma storage have been recorded in the Makaopuhi Crater area before, as have eruptions. Several eruptions occurred in the area during the 1960s and 1970s, ranging in duration from less than a day to about two weeks, and long-duration eruptions also occurred at nearby Maunaulu (1969-1971, 1972-1974) and Pu’u’ō’ō (1983-2018). Magma was also stored in the Makaopuhi Crater area during long-duration eruptions at nearby Pu’u’ō’ō in 1997 and 2007. A map showing the geologic features of the east-central Kīlauea rift zone is provided here: https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/kilauea-middle-east-rift-zone-reference-map.
The recent disturbances are confined to the Upper and Central East Rift Zones of Kilauea Volcano within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park; no unusual activity has been detected to the east of Pu’u’o’o, along the Lower East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano, or in the Southwest Rift Zone at this time.
What to expect
It is not possible to predict the exact outcome of this activity, but based on past events, some possible scenarios are described below. Future intrusions and eruptions are possible in the upper and middle parts of Kilauea’s East Rift Zone. Recent Kilauea eruptions provided advance warning of 1 hour or less in the form of accelerated ground deformation and earthquakes.
Here are some of the scenarios that could play out in the coming days and weeks:
- No Eruption: The accumulation of magma beneath the surface near the Makaopuxi crater continued to slow or stop and did not lead to an eruption.
- Upper Middle East Rift Zone Intrusion or Eruption: New magma veins could be transferred from the summit to the subsurface MERZ and then to the area from Maunaulu to Napau crater, leading to intrusions or eruptions in the Upper East Central Rift Zone within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. In this scenario, we would expect an increase in earthquake rates in the Upper East Central Rift Zone before the lava reaches the surface, along with increased ground deformation and summit collapse.
- Mountaintop Eruption: There is a possibility of a volcanic eruption in the summit region. In this case, we would expect to see an increase in seismicity and ground deformation rates in the summit region before the lava reaches the surface.
- Eastward migration of magma:It is possible that new pulses of magma could continue to accumulate beneath the surface near Makaopuhi crater and migrate eastward toward Pu’u’ō’ō and possibly beyond Pu’u’ō. In this scenario, we would expect earthquake locations and ground deformation patterns to begin moving further east than they do today. Based on current activity, this scenario is less likely than the one above.
What we are doing
The Middle Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano is monitored by a dense network of instruments that record seismic activity, ground deformation, and volcanic gas emissions. Multiple webcams also provide views of this remote area within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.
Hawaii Volcano Observatory staff conducted an aerial flight of the Middle Rift Zone of Kilauea on August 1 and did not find any new fissures or hot zones. Hawaii Volcano Observatory plans to conduct another reconnaissance flight next week. Hawaii Volcano Observatory maintains frequent communication with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and Hawaii County Civil Defense to keep abreast of Kilauea’s volcano activity.
HVO continues to monitor Kilauea closely for any signs of unrest that could indicate a new eruption. If there are significant changes in volcanic activity, a Volcanic Activity Notice will be issued.
More information:
You can also get a summary of Kilauea volcano activity by calling: (808) 967-8862
Kilauea webcam images: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/webcams
Klauea Photos/Videos: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/photo-video-chronology
Klauea lava flow map: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/maps
Kilauea FAQs: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/faqs
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is one of five volcano observatories operated by the United States Geological Survey, responsible for monitoring volcanoes and earthquakes in Hawaii and American Samoa.
contact information:
Subscribe to these news: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vns2/
Summary of volcanic eruption hazards: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/hazards
Recent earthquakes in Hawaii (map and list): https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo
Explanation of Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcanic-alert-levels-characterize-conditions-us-volcanoes
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