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I heard that when Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that she would Cutting winter fuel subsidies They accepted the point made to them in private meetings by Mr Reeves’ deputy, Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, that tough choices had to be made to protect the most vulnerable.
Now they are not so sure. The new MPs in particular have been alarmed by the number of complaints from constituents. It would be unfair to remove benefits from pensioners who have just passed the pension eligibility level, so the Winter fuel costswhich hits people hard. Millions of people are being punished for doing the right thing and saving for retirement but still being poor.
This will cause problems for the government when MPs return to the House of Commons after the summer recess on Monday. Not that there will be a vote on the change. The government has put the order to parliament, using “Negative Procedure” For secondary legislation, that means it is already law.
If the House of Commons votes against it before September 16, the bill will be repealed, but – and Joseph Heller would appreciate this – it will only be put to a vote if the government allows Parliament time to do so. But the government will not do that.
Indeed, this is exactly what Labour MPs unhappy with the tax cuts want. If there was a vote, many of them would feel they should vote against the government, but they saw what happened in July. Seven members of the Socialist Campaign Group, including former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, Vote against two-child limit In the King’s Speech they were stripped of their benefits and suspended from Labour MPs, which had a salutary effect on their former comrades, who were well aware that the seven might never be allowed back again.
Labour MPs will therefore oppose the measure by Lobbying Reeves and Keir Starmer Privately, his argument was rooted not in sympathy but in harsh political reality: pensioners who fell into poverty just above the level of pension credit would lose party votes.
They realize that the Prime Minister is unlikely to Completely cancel the cutsSo they are focusing on persuading her to take some steps in her October 30 budget to soften the blow. Several ideas are being discussed, from a new, more generous warm homes discount scheme to extending the winter fuel benefit to pensioners living in homes in lower council tax bands.
So the early big test of government is ready. When we say government, we mean the heart of government: a partnership between the two governments. Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer.
As Andrew Grice pointed out a few days ago, Starmer’s instincts are further to the left than Reeves’ There are signs that Starmer is more willing than Reeves to consider compromise – both on the two-child limit and on winter fuel benefits. Although she supported Ed Miliband as a new MP in 2010, she has gradually developed a reputation as a tough pragmatist. Her image as a strong chancellor depends on her hard line on fiscal responsibility, so any partial shift on winter fuels would undermine that line. But as many chancellors, including Gordon Brown and George Osborne, have discovered, it is sometimes better to retreat early than to try to hold on to an untenable line.
So the question is whether she can keep going. Starmer’s thoughts The winter fuel issue is not just a party issue; cutting carbon emissions is unpopular with the public (unlike the two-child limit, which the party opposed but the public tended to support).
Reeves’ critics say she would put herself in a better position with both audiences if she announced policies that hit the wealthy first. She countered that she VAT on tuition fees It will be introduced in January, during the academic year. But the tax, which targets the wealthy, was already in the manifesto – it’s just the timing that was a surprise.
Every chancellor faces a similar dilemma. Should she find some way to help those earning just above the means-tested cut-off, reducing the £1.5bn a year in savings, but stop stories of pensioners with small private pensions being forced to choose between eating and heating in winter? She can disguise her reluctance by pretending she will always do something in winter. BudgetBut it will weaken her standing in the eyes of the market — and her position in future spending negotiations with departments.
Or should she stand her ground and insist that there are more tough choices ahead? In the two months before the budget, everything will depend on whether she and Starmer decide together to bow to the storm of protest or to hold out.
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