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STOCKHOLM – By providing early military, political and financial support to Ukraine, the administration of the U.S. president Joe Biden Save the country from a Russian invasion. However, since November 2022, the conflict has been at a stalemate, which is not good for Ukraine. If elected, Kamala Harris should make it her explicit goal to transform the current terrible war of attrition into a victory for Ukraine. L’attack Ukraine’s unexpected push into Russia’s Kursk region could be the start of a more promising development.
Ukraine’s goal is clear: to fully restore its territorial integrity and allow all displaced Ukrainian citizens to return home, including thousands of children. Deleted and receive full compensation for the damage caused by Russia. In contrast, the United States currently has no strategy to speak of. The Biden administration has only said it will support Ukraine’s ” As long as needed ”, while Harris’ Republican opponent, Donald Trump, has promised One day the war will endwhich would mean complete surrender to the Kremlin.
For Harris, the current impasse is also an opportunity. Two-thirds of Americans hope Victory for Ukraine, she has taken care of the country a lot: she met with President Volodymyr Zelensky Six times She led the U.S. delegation Ukraine Peace Summitheld in Switzerland in June. As US vice president, she followed in Biden’s footsteps; but as president, she could turn the tables and make Ukraine one of her main winning themes.
To do this, Kamala Harris needs to adopt a comprehensive strategy backed by adequate resources. The policy of the Biden administration (likely the work of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan) is to defend Ukraine without angering Russian President Vladimir Putin. Due to irrational fears of nuclear attack or World War III, the White House has invented fictitious Russian red lines, thereby providing Russia with a safe haven from Ukraine being attacked with Western weapons. Given that Putin cannot survive a nuclear war, it is highly unlikely that he will go down this path.
Another fundamental flaw in Biden’s policy is the lack of a clear goal. The goal should be to provide Ukraine with enough support to defeat Russia. Harris should appoint a national security adviser who is fully committed to achieving this goal. The Ukrainians are bravely fighting alone. They don’t need foreign troops, but they need powerful weapons, the right to use them to target Russian bases, and ample funding from the West.
Ukraine Received By 2023, Ukraine will receive about $100 billion (half in military aid, the rest in budget support and humanitarian aid), and is expected to receive roughly the same amount by 2024. While significant, it is not enough to turn the tide. For a complete victory, Ukraine might need $150 billion per year, with military aid doubling to $100 billion. This would allow it to win the war, thereby reducing future costs (not to mention Ukrainian suffering).
It is no secret where these funds can be found. $280 billion Russian reserves, including Two-thirds stored in the private Euroclear system in Belgium. In addition, the U.S. Congress wisely passed Authorized Law The U.S. Treasury Department seized frozen Russian assets and asked the European Union to do the same. But Europe refused, mainly becausebe opposed to France and Germany.
This European boycott makes no sense. The Kremlin cannot credibly claim the protection of international law, even though Russia violates it every day. Like the United States, the EU must pass legislation to seize Russian funds and use them to support Ukraine. $5 billion The money, which is already in the United States, could be seized and immediately returned to Ukraine in order to set an example for the Europeans. Indeed, in June the United States persuaded other G7 members to provide loans $50 billion By using the future returns of frozen Russian funds to provide Ukraine with funds. This is a good start. But Ukraine needs this money quickly to defeat Russia.
The United States, Britain, and Canada have been the main sources of military aid and training for Ukraine since Russia launched its massive invasion in February 2022. In the early months of the war, they were understandably reluctant to provide Ukraine with state-of-the-art weapons for fear that Russia would seize them. But those concerns eased in the summer of 2022. Within two years, the United States could have provided Ukraine with the weapons it needed to repel Russia.
If the United States does not take the lead, nothing much will happen. The United States continues to dominate the global market for weapons production and exports, while the Europeans have too few weapons to change the balance of war.
Finally, the most absurd flaw in U.S. policy toward Ukraine: the prohibition of Weapons provided by the United States Striking Russian bases in Ukraine that have come under attack. This policy is not even consistent with the right to self-defense Registered In the UN Charter. Should be revoked immediately.
A war in Ukraine could be a boon for Harris, but she would have to correct Biden’s mistakes and provide Ukraine with the additional resources it needs to defeat Russia. By seizing Russian sovereign assets and convincing U.S. allies to do the same, she could help Ukraine win without placing an additional financial burden on the United States.
Anders Åslund
Anders Åslund is Crony Capitalism in Russia: The Road from Market Economy to Kleptocracy (Yale University Press, 2019).
Project Syndicate, 2024.
www.project-syndicate.org
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