If Sam Hou Fai becomes the next Chief Executive, what will it mean for Macau?

Macau will have a new leader on December 20, 2024. After months of speculation, current Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng Announce Last Wednesday, he said he would not seek a second term for health reasons.

Ho Iat Seng’s decision opens the door for new faces to lead Macau for the next five years. Reserve A number of candidates have been proposed as potential candidates for the elections, which will be held between August 29 and September 12, and on October 13. However, no one has received as much attention as Macau’s chief judge. Sam Hou Fai.

[See more: Here’s what to know about Sam Hou Fai, who could be running in Macao’s CE election]

The president of the Court of Final Appeal publicly stated last Thursday that he was “considering” running for election, explaining that he had “always been eager to serve Macau.” He appeared to have announced his candidacy on Monday when he Resign He was removed from his judicial duties, a decision that took effect on August 28.

What are the chances of Samuel Lam becoming the Chief Executive?

While it remains to be seen whether Sam will run for what he calls a “high office,” Lu ShaoxingVeteran political commentator on Macau and Hong Kong.

Lu noted that Tam’s resume, including extensive legal experience in Macau, mainland China and Portugal, as well as service in the Macau judiciary since 1999, will help him easily secure the 66 nomination votes needed to become a candidate.

“I think he’s going to be a strong contender. [to beat] “For the position of Chief Executive,” said the expert.

Where will Sam’s Club lead Macau?

Yang Mingyu, assistant professor at the Department of Government and Public Administration at the University of Macau, said he did not expect Tseng to deviate from the status quo, noting that “it doesn’t matter who becomes the chief executive because the rules of the game are like this, you choose the central government. [government’s] Make the order your priority.”

Lu Zhiqiang holds a similar view, predicting that there will be no major legislative or constitutional developments during the next chief executive’s term because “Macau’s politics are traditionally less developed and relatively frozen.”

[See more: New CE will maintain ‘status quo’ for gambling, say analysts]

He added that there would be “a lot of continuity” between Ho and his successor, with national security as well as economic recovery and improving people’s livelihood continuing to be the two main areas of focus for the new government.

Yeung noted that the new chief executive will not make any major policy changes regarding casinos because the industry is “too important to Macau.” Lu agreed, noting that “Macau will continue to practice casino capitalism, but this casino capitalism is being diluted by more social welfare, and with the integration with Hengqin, Macau’s economy will also be more diversified.”

[See more: CE election: Sam Hou Fai has ‘the desire to serve Macao’]

Indeed, Macau’s economic diversification, especially its integration with Hengqin, is expected to be a key policy agenda and, as Lu pointed out, a priority not only for Macau authorities but also for Guangdong Province and the central government.

How will Sam handle national security issues?

Politically speaking, Yang said, if Sam takes office, he is likely to be a conservative leader who is “very careful about basic order.” As evidence, the scholar cited Case 94/2019These include calls by local protesters Mantou and Zhao Dengxi to overturn a ban by public security police on their holding rallies against police violence during the 2019-2020 Hong Kong protests.

The other judges of the Court of Final Appeal who heard the case ultimately upheld the ban, arguing that holding a protest in Tap Seac Square would constitute interference in Hong Kong’s internal affairs and violate Macau’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, and that Hong Kong authorities had not acknowledged that police had used excessive force against protesters.

[See more: Macao Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng is not running for reelection]

However, Lu does not believe that the 2019 case is “a good sign” that Sim will take a hard line on national security. Instead, the political commentator believes Sim “will do a good job of protecting and maintaining China’s national security on the one hand, and balancing the needs of Macau’s multiple freedoms on the other.”

Should residents be concerned about Sam’s lack of economic experience?

While Sam has strong legal credentials, he lacks experience in other key areas seen as crucial to being Macau’s leader. “He has no experience in economics and regional cooperation, or even…[in areas such as] “Exporting soft power to China,” Yang said. “I doubt whether he is capable of carrying out the central government’s orders.”

[See more: Nominations of candidates for the Chief Executive election begin on 29 August]

As a result, Law explained that if Mr. Sum does take the top job, he will most likely have to rely on members of the Cabinet to help him make up for his lack of expertise in other non-judicial areas. “I think his economic experience is relatively weak, so he will have to rely on members of the Executive Council who may be more experienced in economic and financial development,” he said. “That being said, I believe Mr. Sum will be able to successfully govern Macau with the help of a group of experienced economic advisers.”