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Traditionally, these days in August are conducted in a relaxed atmosphere, reflecting the festive mood. Meanwhile, political leaders are preparing for rallies and parties to announce the resumption of activities, with a particular focus this year on whether the government can guarantee the approval of the budget.
Clearly, if the government wants to ensure the budget is approved, it will need to negotiate. But what to negotiate and with whom? This topic has been marked by statements and speculation from different quarters.
In my opinion, besides knowing what to negotiate, it is important to understand that “negotiating” means accepting the possibility of making concessions, which in politics can be very difficult and painful when you don’t have a majority.
Since the national budget is the most important document guiding government actions, it is natural that the government and the opposition will focus on discussing the basic strategic choices of budgetary policy and then implementing them into specific measures.
In this context, several members of the government, starting with the Minister of Finance, and the parliamentary leadership of the Social Democratic Party and the Social Democratic Party have stated that the opposition must respect the consistency of the budget with its program, which in turn is the formulation of an AD election program. This reflects the government’s unwillingness to make relevant concessions on budgetary matters.
For their part, the opposition demands that the government recognize that they were also elected on the basis of their own electoral program, which also represents their commitment to the voters, and that they do not need to do this, simply because they did not reject the electoral program the government is now obliged to create the conditions for its realization. This contradicts the very concept of a parliamentary opposition.
Therefore, both sides must be sincere and realistic and know what to ask for and what to give in.
Of course, there is a possibility that the initial position will be radicalized, turning the discussion into a war of positions. If this is the case, there will be no negotiations at all, and the fate of the budget will depend entirely on the Socialists’ possible abstention, or if they decide to vote against it, Chega’s vote in favor.
This could even be a government strategy – to make no concessions and force the opposition to risk disbanding and new elections, in which case it could play the victim. But it is risky.
There is another possibility, which is that the opposition makes the budget generally workable and, in the context of the general discussion, pushes for changes to be approved that are against the government’s will. This could lead to a completely bizarre situation where the government is forced to govern under a budget it disagrees with. In this case, I am more likely to see the government resigning to trigger new elections.
Therefore, it is hoped that the parties and gatherings held in the coming weeks will bring more information and clarify the situation.
Everything could end up in the hands of the president, who warned in 2021 that the rejection of the budget would mean new elections, because it would be inconvenient to govern with a twelfth power, and announced in 2022 the dissolution of parliament if the prime minister resigned. Strangely, this time he chose silence. I think you would do better if you announced your dispositions.
The author wrote according to the old spelling.
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