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Nothing will happen in Venezuela. When the media moment is over, what happened in Gaza or Ukraine will happen: the world will no longer pay attention to suffering. The struggle to restore freedom, democracy and a minimum of peace will become a very difficult process, and only the brave will be able to persevere. For those who, like María Corina Machado, decide to stay in Venezuela and step up if necessary to restore the country. Yes, it is a very pessimistic vision, but this is because important leaders in Latin America – Mexico and Brazil – have already pulled out daisies before doing something big, dramatic to avoid the massacre, or rather, to prevent it from coming to Venezuela for several years.
There will never be another Venezuela
Mexico lost its legitimacy long ago, when its president no longer maintained the necessary respect for other regional leaders and regimes, personal attacks and insults that limited his regional standing, not to mention his particular indifference to regional organizations that he simply did not care to send representatives to or participate in. This leaves us with only one regional leader who has the potential to act on the case: Lula. Because, let’s be realistic: the only way to a peaceful transition in Venezuela can only be achieved through multilateral negotiations. For this negotiation to happen, there needs to be a mediator who is able to convince Maduro and his regime to participate in the negotiations, and the only one who currently has this ability is the Lula and Itamaraty team. Let’s remember that Brazil provided guarantees to the Argentine embassy in Caracas so that they can continue to operate and continue to protect the opposition leaders who keep copies of the election records. Without Brazil’s intervention, the Maduro government would have probably carried out an armed invasion. Even the United States toned down the tone of the statement, which is a far cry from the Guaidó 2.0 that many pro-Maduro activists in the region are eager to interpret. You may wonder why I did not mention Colombia, one of the three signatories of the statement. Simple. President Petro decided long ago to follow López Obrador’s playbook, destroying any slim chance he had of regional leadership in the process.
Fortunately, one person who really understands all this is María Corina Machado. On Saturday, she made it clear that she is betting on a long, bloody, difficult process and that only a strategy of peaceful, informed resistance, using Venezuela’s laws and constitution, can restore the country, despite knowing that its institutions are working together – to be chosen by Chavismo. He appealed directly to Brazil and its government management to find a solution that: 1) makes the results of the July 28 elections transparent and tabulates the data; 2) helps the democratic transition process. María Corina knows better than anyone that without a negotiated solution, all the external threats regarding ICC proceedings or extradition to the United States will only further entrench the Chavista leadership and turn any process of return to democracy into a bloody one. No one wants Venezuela like this. We all wish you peace, freedom, development. (profound)
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