Goal and the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils

One of my favorite posts from the 2022-23 season is A way to recognize when a team has “scored”. That is, a team will seemingly attack the opponent at will during the game, and if it weren’t for the goalkeeper, they would score a lot of goals. This method is a rule of thumb: if the difference between actual goals (GF) and expected goals (xGF) is -2 or more, then you are being shot by the goalkeeper. (PS: I use Natural Statistics Techniques The model, based on past history, assigns a value to attempts based on factors (primarily shot location). Sum up a game and you get the team’s xGF. This is also your “expected.” )

Everyone scores goals. Even the 52-win New Jersey Devils The 2022-23 season was affected by this. 12 times in the regular season and 1 time in the playoffs. (Off topic: I tried to prove the -2 difference with basic math) If this happened 13 times to a very, very good New Jersey Devils team, how often will it happen to a very disappointing New Jersey Devils team in the 2023-24 season?

2023-24 Devils Goals

Here are all the times the Devils were shot on goal by the goalie. Usually resulted in a loss for the team. Usually, but not always.

Data source: Natural Statistics Techniques

Those 10 games represent the most frustrating and worst performances of last season. The infamous Feb. 22 game against Our Hated Rivals, when Matt Rempe hit Nathan Bastian in the head and was ejected less than 20 seconds into the game, records show. The Devils thoroughly outplayed the Rocks in that game, as they kept giving up the ball and Igor Shesterkin thwarted their offense. You’ll also see some other infamous nights in this set of ten games. A disastrous defeat to Anaheim in Newark. this Lost badly to San Jose – a winless road team at the time – in Newark. Anaheim’s second frustrating loss The month Stone Cold Steve Austin was released This is a real shame for Arizona. Being goaltended usually comes with a bad night, and there were plenty of those during these ten games.

I’ve italicized three of these games because they also represent the opposite: the Devils goalie outplayed the other team. Just as a difference of 2 or more between expected goals and actual goals scored represents the Devils being outplayed by their goalie, a difference of 2 or more between expected goals and actual goals conceded represents a strong performance by the Devils goalie. Both goalies can be pleased with the matchup. The Nov. 3 game in St. Louis, The game in Boston on January 15and The Feb. 10 game in Carolina. As long as you ignore the fact that the Devils lost the first two games and lost the third in overtime. And the Devils were shutouts in two of those games. Again: goals usually come with bad nights. And bad results, the Devils are 1-8-1 in those ten games. Dec. 13 overtime win over Boston It was a rare win. And it was very close to another double goalie duel (pardon the pun, call it a goalie duel).

That’s all well and good, and surprisingly uncommon for a team that didn’t make the playoffs. The Devils scored 12 times in the 2022-23 regular season and once in the playoffs. I think this means that the quality of a team is not necessarily determined by how good other goalies are against them. It also further suggests that being goalied is something that happens during the season. If it ends up happening 10-12 times or so in the 2024-25 season, then maybe it’s worth accepting that these things happen. The Devils just have to somehow work to get results when they happen, and more importantly, get results when it doesn’t happen.

2023-24 Devils Goals

The 2023-24 Devils goaltending hasn’t been great. You don’t even need to look at the numbers. Just know that the team started with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid; ended last season with Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen; and general manager Tom Fitzgerald scored a major win by acquiring Jacob Markstrom after Vanecek and Schmid left the team. That being said, the Devils goaltending did have some strong nights.

Data source: Natural Statistics Techniques

Ten times, to be exact. Three of those games were included in the previous list, and the Devils went 0-2-1 in those games. In the other seven times, the Devils went 5-1-1. No, not seven wins. They lost. Lost to Philadelphia 0-1 at the end of the season and Lost in a shootout against Nashville in April. By that point, the Devils had already played their entire season, so it wasn’t a big deal at the time. However, the 5-3-2 record in those ten games speaks to a bigger point. If your goalie is having a good night, then not getting a win or even a point can be painful.

Some trivia: The March 24 win against the Islanders was the team’s only shutout game of the season. Thank you, Kaapo Kahkonen. This was the best night of his brief time in New Jersey. It’s worth noting that half of the games on this list also took place after March 8, 2024. Also known as the 2023-24 NHL trade deadlineHindsight is always 20-20, and I know we can’t make up for past missteps. Still, one can’t help but wonder what this season would have looked like if Fitzgerald had addressed the goaltending situation before the trade deadline. Alas.

anyway, The Devils scored 11 times in the regular season and twice in the playoffs. The latter was thanks to Akira Schmid’s outstanding performances in Games 3 and 5 of the series. Game 7 came just past the deadline. Similar to the Devils’ goalie acquisition, it’s not unreasonable to expect the Devils’ goalie to occasionally have a great performance. What was lacking last season were those night-to-night performances. The team’s results have consistently matched them.

The Devils goaltenders shine in the 2023-24 season

Since the Devils’ goalie is not good in 2023-24, does that mean they are out of the game? Or, is the difference between their goals allowed and expected goals allowed greater than +2? This did happen a few times in 2023-24.

Data source: Natural Statistics Techniques

Thirteen times to be exact. The game in italics is the 6-5 goal-scoring extravaganza on January 22 against Las Vegas. By that standard, both teams’ goaltending performed extremely well. This was also a rare win for the Devils in this thirteen-game list, as they went 1-12-0 in those thirteen games. Two points were scored in twenty-six. There are some repeating games on this list of games where the Devils were goalie-less: the tough loss to our hated rivals in February. The equally tough loss to Washington in February. That infuriating loss to San Jose. There are a few other infamous nights on this list. Just to name a few: A disastrous defeat to Washington in October This ultimately became a harbinger of the 2023-24 season. After losing to Detroit before Thanksgiving, the team was mediocre.certainly, Brailing Night Fiasco (I don’t blame Nico Daws for that.) These games caused varying degrees of pain at the time. Depending on how invested you were in them, recalling some of them can be a little painful. I know it was for me.

But is that a lot? It’s certainly more than last season, when it happened eight times in the regular season and twice in the playoffs. That’s 10 times total — not far off 13. While we hope it doesn’t happen as much in the 2024-25 season, it’s reasonable to expect it to happen a few times. Everyone has bad games. When goalies struggle, teams generally have tough nights. Again, the key is getting results when that doesn’t happen. The most important thing is managing the goalies so their confidence or energy isn’t depleted.

2023-24 Devils Light Up Opposing Goalies

Let me end this post on a positive note: The Devils are giving opposing goalies a run for their money. While the Devils’ own goaltending has had its share of bad performances, they’ve absolutely forced opponents to have bad nights in the goal area.

Data source: Natural Statistics Techniques

The Devils allowed two more goals than expected in 12 games last season, 11 of which were wins. The exception was the loss to Vancouver on January 6.the Canucks dug a big hole for the Devils, and the Devils tried to climb out of it. They failed, but it was an attempt. The other 11 games were obviously much better.

Some games were goal-scoring extravaganzas, such as the January 22 game against Las Vegas. Oct. 20 Overtime win over Islandersthis December win over Vancouver (not sure why the GA column is 4), and April 11 victory in Toronto Others were classic knockdowns and routs, such as Black Friday Victory over Buffalo, Allen beat Dallas 6-2 after being beaten early (Allen guards the goal for the Stars), Revenge of Washingtonand Win against Toronto in late March It probably also exposed their goalkeeping ability. Even in a disappointing season there were good times.

How many times did the more successful 2022-23 Devils surprise opposing goalies? Not that many. They did it just nine times in the regular season and once in the playoffs (yes, that 8-4 win over Carolina). Does that mean the 2023-24 Devils are better offensively? No, not necessarily. Again, the bigger point is that just as the Devils and opposing goalies can have big nights to frustrate other teams, goalies can also shine or fizzle in a game with a ton of goals.

Final Thoughts

It’s worth noting that 36 different games fell into one of the four categories described in this article. There were multiple games that fell into more than one category. I find this fascinating. Approximately 44% of games last season had the Devils get beat by their goalie, the Devils goalie beat the opposing team, the Devils goalie got beat, and/or the opposing goalie got beat by the Devils. This is a fairly significant portion of the season, and depending on what happens, the results tend to go in the direction you’d expect from a good goalie performance.

What does this mean for next season? I truly believe the Devils have to make the playoffs. What that means is that as much as we want the Devils to win more games, there are nights when they just can’t. Just like there are nights when it’s just “burn the tape,” there are nights when the other goalies are in great form, and the Devils have to learn how to deal with that, just like Hilary Duff did. It would be great if the Devils could make the bad stuff happen less and the good stuff happen more. It would be even better if the Devils could get better results when their goalie is playing well and get better results the other 56% of the season when those fluctuations don’t happen. It would be even better if they could find a way to drag more of those tougher nights out of the regular season in order to pick up a point here or there.

For me, and hopefully for you, we just have to accept being shot. Even though I, and probably you, don’t like it. Especially when it’s happening. Thanks for reading.