Germany’s Christian Democratic Party is the most powerful force in European elections.

(dpa) In the German European Parliament elections, the opposition Christian Democratic Party emerged as the strongest force so far. According to preliminary forecasts from ARD and ZDF, the right-wing populist AfD is also making progress and reaching second place.

Close behind were the Social Democrats, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Greens came in fourth with significant losses. The FDP (Liberal Party) remained almost stable, while the Left wing fell sharply and was replaced by the new BSW party, led by Bundestag member Sahra Wagenknecht.

This is a bitter setback for Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition – all three government parties are losing voters. With a full year to go until the next federal election, which is likely to be in September 2025, the “traffic light” coalition received less than a third of the votes. Surveys show that 76% of Germans are dissatisfied with the work of the federal government.

According to the forecast, the CDU/CSU will increase slightly to 29.6% to 30% (2019: 28.9%). With 16.1% to 16.4%, the AfD achieved its best result in the national elections so far, although this result is lower than previous polls.

The SPD fell to 14% (2019: 15.8) – the worst result since the German national election. The Greens fell to 12% to 12.4% (2019: 20.5). The FDP remained roughly unchanged at 4.9% to 5% (5.4). The Left ended up with only 2.8% to 2.9% (5.5%). The BSW, a left-wing populist party that split from the Left, started with 5.7% to 5.9%.

Unlike federal and state elections, Germany’s European elections do not have a threshold of about five percent. Voter turnout is forecast to be between 64 and 66 percent. In 2019, it was 61.4 percent, when Germany ranked fifth among the 27 EU countries. For the first time, Germany allowed 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in European elections.

Plus the expectations of right-wing parties

In many EU countries, including Germany, right-wing parties are expected to see a significant increase in numbers. Pre-election surveys showed the AfD at more than 20 percent. However, the party has been embroiled in charges against its top candidate, Maximilian Krah, and Petr Bystron, the runner-up on the European election list. Both cases have made headlines for possible links to pro-Russian networks, and in Krah’s case, there may also be links to China.

Bystron is under investigation for preliminary suspicions of bribery and money laundering. Kra, a member of the European Parliament since 2019, has recently been widely criticized for his remarks disparaging the SS, the so-called National Socialist SS. The AfD federal executive committee subsequently banned Kra from appearing in the campaign. As a result, the right-wing ID (Identity and Democracy) faction in the European Parliament excluded all AfD MPs.

Some 360 ​​million citizens across the 27-nation EU are eligible to vote, nearly 61 million of whom are Germans, while nearly 4 million EU asylum seekers are also allowed to vote in Germany.

Depending on the country, 720 new MEPs were elected in Europe from Thursday to Sunday, with Germany electing 96 on the final day. Apart from India’s parliamentary elections, this is the world’s largest democratic vote and the only direct election across national borders.

A crisis-filled year since the 2019 European elections

In the five years since the last European elections in 2019, severe crises have kept the EU on tenterhooks: a pandemic that has killed tens of thousands of people and the subsequent economic crisis, Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis, another surge in the number of migrants to Europe and, most recently, the war in Gaza and weather disasters such as droughts and floods caused by a worsening climate crisis.

In Germany, the European elections are seen as an important test of sentiment ahead of three state elections in September in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, and a federal election next year. In the east, the AfD is likely to emerge as the strongest party in three state parliaments in September.

Commission President von der Leyen is seeking re-election

After the elections, most MEPs join a political group in the EU Parliament, namely the Christian Democrats, European People’s Party, Social Democrats, Liberals, the Left, the Greens, or one of the two right-wing groups.

One of the first tasks of the new parliament will be to confirm the new European Commission, the EU’s executive body. The current Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, a German Christian Democrat, is seeking re-election. Unlike other candidates, the former federal defense minister did not apply for a seat in the European Parliament.

The sister party CSU has fielded its top candidate, Manfred Weber, who is the leader of the European People’s Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament. In 2019, 51-year-old von der Leyen was a popular candidate for the presidency of the European Commission, but did not receive a majority, so von der Leyen emerged as the winner.

In parallel with the European elections, eight German federal states also held local elections: Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. In Thuringia, many regional governors and mayors were also elected in runoffs.