Geopolitical issues loom as Pacific island leaders prepare for summit

From August 26 to 30, Pacific Island leaders gathered for the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders MeetingThe meeting was held in Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga. Several pressing issues will be discussed: Climate Change, De-bankingand New Caledonia crisisEtc. In order to comply with thePacific Road“The purpose of the member states attending the summit is to reach an consensus How best to address these challenges.

Multilateral forums such as the Pacific Islands Forum and the high-level meetings that come with them are an important part of regional affairs because they create a mechanism for Pacific Island countries to unite to increase their influence in international politics. This is particularly important given the small size of many countries in the region, which limits their ability to gain influence individually. By uniting, they find strength in numbers.

As this year’s meeting approaches, geopolitical issues have become increasingly prominent. In recent years, external powers have shown interest in this issue. Broad The maritime area has increased significantly, mainly due to its connection with the growing geopolitical confrontation In the Indo-Pacific USA and ChinaTheir interests respective Allies and Partners is also growing. While other issues may be equally important, geopolitics get this title.

As Sino-US relations become increasingly Antagonism, Concerns Concerns are growing among Pacific island countries about the impact of competition between the two powers.Friends of everyone” foreign policy, they are reluctant to take sides between external powers, lest they divide the local community into competing groups. However, they also try to Leverage This newfound interest is in garnering more aid—it’s the world most Aid-dependent areas.

These anxieties among Pacific island nations are entirely understandable. After all, no country wants to be a pawn on another’s chessboard. Yet the idea that they are immune to geopolitical machinations simply does not work in practice. As one wise Indo-Pacific observer recently put it to me, aptly citing Leon Trotsky: “You may not be interested in geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you.” All signs suggest that this interest continues, not abates.

Furthermore, many of the key issues facing the region have undeniable geopolitical implications. Submarine cables are just one example. Increasing regional access to submarine cables could indeed help solve the daunting connectivity problem. challengeBut they are also global geopolitics Flash point. Donor funding program In this space, local needs are met. RequireBut they are driven not just by an altruistic desire to do good, but also by geopolitics. calculate.

As the Pacific Islands prepare to take center stage next week, several countries are sending delegations to the forum, fully recognizing the importance of the forum. Australia will sit in the main venue as a member of the Pacific Islands Forum, while the United States and China will be on the sidelines as dialogue partners of the Pacific Islands Forum. Countries such as Pacific Islands Forum member New Zealand and dialogue partner Japan are other notable attendees.

While the leaders’ meeting gets a lot of attention for its importance, it is just one of many ways outside powers are engaging with Pacific island nations. Australia, the United States, China and others are using a range of diplomatic tools — such as high-level visits, in-country representation and official development assistance — to compete for influence, and are adapting their approaches as Pacific nations increasingly assert themselves on foreign policy issues.

China skilled Good at taking advantage of high-level visits and receiving Fijithis solomon islandsand Vanuatu In the past six weeks alone, Australia has excelled at this, hosting papua new guinea and solomon islands This year, while maintaining Rapid speed Australians visiting the region Advanced Officials. USA implement Relatively in this regard 2023But it has fallen behind by 2024, partly because crisis elsewhere and the upcoming US election.

Leader-level visits and multilateral talks are important, but nothing is more important than a sustained presence on the ground. Task Of all the 16 Pacific Island nations, Australia has long had deep roots in the region but faces Patriarchal system. China will soon have Task to ten, but it has struggle Adapting to local conditions. The eighth mission In July other Kiribati has not yet ratified, but Slow Continue to provide the necessary personnel and resources to increase operational tempo.

According to the Lowy Institute Pacific Aid MapTotal ODA to the region increased steadily from the mid-2010s to 2021 (the latest year for which data are available). Australia remains The largest Contrary to some perceptions, China is actually reduce Its official development assistance has shifted to a more targeted approach. show up However, progress in delivering the promised assistance has been slow, as evidenced by Delay renew India was unable to sign Compacts of Free Association with the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau due to problems in its domestic policy-making process.

But what have these efforts achieved so far? get Impact, especially Economical The problem is that it has no meet Australia and the United States may have fallen behind China on security issues. But influence is not a zero-sum game, and Washington and Canberra Keep The preferred partner for most Pacific Island countries, especially exist Safety questionIt is worth noting that the United States continues to face Stubborn question Its reliability and staying power; continued steady diplomacy, including at next week’s leaders’ meeting, and close work with allies and partners will help steadily mitigate these issues.

While countries in the region welcome this new interest, they want outside parties to pay more attention to their perspectives rather than well-intentioned lecturing them on geopolitics. In doing so, papua new guinea and Vanuatu Meanwhile, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiweni Rabuka is one of the region’s senior politicians, advocating for “Heping District” concept to guide the formulation of regional foreign policy.

When Australian, Chinese, American and other foreign officials are welcomed into the region’s “village”, they should be prepared to listen, as former US Secretary of State George Shultz put it, Tending the GardenWhile multilateral gatherings inevitably involve an element of empty talk, the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting is an important gathering that embodies the “Pacific Way” and provides an opportunity for countries to work together to address the region’s most pressing challenges.

Parker Novak is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center and Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, specializing in Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, Indo-Pacific geopolitics, and U.S. foreign policy. The views expressed in this article are his own.

Source: Atlantic Council.