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When, in January, Luiz Montenegro said he wanted to reconcile with his elders – as he said at the close of the Democratic Alliance (AD) congress, “It is time to reconcile with Portugal’s pensioners and retirees” – I was a little surprised.
Committed to updating pensions in accordance with the law (dispelling the ghosts of past cuts), significantly increasing old-age solidarity (not only raising the reference value, but also acknowledging that it will grow to the minimum wage (the minimum wage in a possible second term of the head of government), Montenegro did not write a scrawl on the summary sheet, it was deleted in the last period of PSD/CDS governance.
If the Pedro Passos Coelho Consulate left an indelible mark, it was “only” in 2012 that, by decision of the Constitutional Court, festive and Christmas bonuses were not paid to pensioners with a pension of more than 1000 euros (pensioners with a pension below that amount “only” cancelled one of the subsidies), due to the increase in rates and the population covered (different structures), Montenegro refused to do so, thanks to the extraordinary contribution of solidarity and the ongoing truce between the then Prime Minister and Paulo Portas on violent measures affecting pensioners.
If at one time he had to put his head on the chopping block to defend the traumatic economic and financial aid for which the Socialists and Antonio Costa pretended not to bear the slightest responsibility, today the leader of the Social Democratic Party is trying to eliminate once and for all the idea of the “gray split” that Portas himself helped to label the governance during the Troika period.
Ten years later, as Antonio Costa continues to increase pensions at the pace of someone who only wants to win elections, despite all the evidence claiming that our pension system is sustainable, the current government is doing everything it can to win back this important segment of the electorate that was once irretrievably lost to the socialists.
This Wednesday, on the Quarteira promenade, Montenegro once again rehearsed a “walk the talk” statement, guaranteeing that no pension would be reduced by a penny and announcing that special grants would be paid in October to retirees with lower pensions. Pensions: 200 euros for those with an income of up to 509.26 euros; 150 euros for those who receive between this amount and 1018.52 euros; finally, 100 euros for anyone with an income between the last value and 1527.78 euros.
The Prime Minister may object to the fact that he is in power for a short period of time. You may get angry when you hear commentators criticising your strategy of short-term measures. He may even get angry at the suggestion that they are deciding based on votes, but he knows that this criticism fits the facts. Similar to Costa on another scale and with unparalleled brazenness, Montenegro is launching a takeover campaign among dissolved voters.
This division is no more innocent than the measures against the young and the compensation of the most vocal professional class. It is money thrown into the hands of the elderly, as if someone threw bread on the table of the poor. Above all, it is a dissuasion strategy and a wise warning from Montenegro to Pedro Nuno Santos and André Ventura: if elections are held, he will be the one to show his strength.
Although little is known about the design of this measure – at least it will be a one-off – it is not just a strategy to break the tradition of negativism and stop the opposition that demands higher incomes for all hours – why 100 euros, when for the lunatics on duty it could be 1,000 euros? – I would like to see a continuous strategy to increase global incomes.
I understand the appeal for a feast, and I do not condemn the enthusiasm of many people, especially the most vulnerable, for dealing with everyday problems immediately, especially if they do not follow the tortuous path of reform. However, I cannot forget about tomorrow’s pensioners. Nor can I ignore the dark clouds announced in the latest forecasts of the European Commission.
According to the 2024 Aging Report, the average pension in our country is 69.4% of each citizen’s last salary. If there are no relevant changes in social security, in 26 years, that is, in 2050, the first pension of Portuguese people will be equivalent to an average of 38.5% of their retirement salary.
Even worse: without reform and without changing our demographics, more and more taxes will be needed to make up for this imbalance (which only the deniers pretend doesn’t exist), and this imbalance will become too prominent in just over a decade.
I therefore advise caution, avoid the impulses of summer and curb the electoralism of autumn. The demographic winter demands that we take responsibility. From everyone and before everyone. It requires us to leave no one behind, but also not to prevent anyone from looking forward. He advises us not to go from division to gray checks. My parents, both pensioners, will understand my indifference to such arrangements. They know that I criticize them for my daughter’s ideas.
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