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The post-Brexit trade deal that Theresa May will bring from Brussels is likely to be short on detail, leaving the UK in a weak position of having to negotiate large parts of a trade agreement after losing much of its influence.
The European Union plans to keep the final wording of a deal on future trade relations fairly vague, according to four people familiar with the matter. It will start working on the text in the next three months and aims to publish it before the summer, two of the people said.
The UK continues to say, at least publicly, that it wants to have a detailed trade deal in place before leaving the EU in March 2019.
It wants to do this because once it leaves the EU, it will have agreed to pay a huge financial settlement and will therefore lose a lot of influence.
EU officials have even said publicly that the deal they want to reach before Brexit Day will focus on divorce issues and future relations, and the whole of Britain hopes it will be a non-binding declaration of political intent.
They have not disclosed much detail publicly. British officials have said that at the very least they want a “deal of settlement” that can be seamlessly transformed into a full trade deal.
The trade deal with Canada is 1,600 pages long, while the agreement on the future relationship will be signed alongside the Withdrawal Agreement in the form of a political declaration that is likely to be between 30 and 40 pages long.
Two people familiar with the matter said there was some tension on the EU side: some governments among the remaining 27 EU countries were willing to work out more details in certain areas, including potentially where Britain would agree to align with EU rules and standards.
As well as holding the UK government to fixed principles, they said it would help build confidence in completing the deal.
One official said the level of detail would likely depend on how quickly the British government could present a concrete negotiating position and agree to the EU’s conditions.
While Theresa May detailed her vision for the future relationship in a speech on Friday, the EU plan reflects the belief in Brussels and continental capitals that Britain’s position remains unclear and that major differences remain between the two sides.
Trade talks are due to begin at the end of this month, with the EU taking the first step this week by sending a draft negotiating position to national capitals.
One official said it would lay out broad plans for a Canada-style trade agreement that would fall short of the tailored deal Theresa May has demanded but would open the way for a more generous deal if Britain dropped some of its demands.
“The UK is closing its doors one by one and the only possible model is a free trade agreement,” Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said in a speech in Brussels last week. “Any vision for the future must take into account the fact that the EU cannot and will not compromise its fundamental principles.”
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