[ad_1]
Opinion polls show that the second round of voting in France’s parliamentary election on Sunday could result in a deadlock in parliament with no clear majority, even though the far right hopes to win enough seats to form its first government since World War II. If it ends in a complete deadlock, there is even a possibility that Macron will resign. Reuters provides some data on the election and what might happen afterwards.
How does voting work?
A total of 577 constituencies were set up during the election, one for each seat in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament).
Last Sunday, 76 MPs were elected in the first round of elections, 39 of whom represent the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies, leaving 501 seats for the second round.
Voting will close at 18:00 local time (19:00 Romanian time) in smaller towns and at 20:00 local time (21:00 Romanian time) in larger cities. At 20:00, pollsters will publish their first national forecasts based on the first partial results from polling stations that closed earlier in the day. These are usually reliable.
Votes are usually counted quickly. However, if the results are close — for example, Republicans are just a few seats away from an outright majority — the final results may not be known until the early hours of Monday morning.
Who will win?
The RN won the first round with a third of the total votes. Opinion polls predicted the party would win more seats than any other party, but its margin of victory has shrunk as political rivals collaborate to form a unified anti-RN bloc. The RN may not be able to secure a functional majority.
The New Popular Front, the Left Alliance and a coalition of centrist parties backing President Emmanuel Macron withdrew more than 200 candidates from the second round to improve the chances of anti-RC candidates taking the lead in their respective constituencies.
A more fragmented field has historically favored the far right, and the latest polls after candidates dropped out suggest that strategy is working, with the most likely scenario being that the far right fails to win an outright majority in parliament. That outcome would bring the greatest political uncertainty to France in recent decades.
What are you looking at?
A key question is whether voters will support anti-RN candidates in their districts, or whether they will choose not to go to the polls or support the far right despite suggestions to the contrary from their preferred candidates.
The RN and its allies need to win 289 seats to gain an absolute majority and be able to implement its anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic agenda. The party announced that its chairman, Jordan Bardella, will be its candidate for prime minister. In this case, Macron’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, will resign immediately. Macron will appoint a new prime minister, who will then be responsible for forming a government. Macron will have the right to veto a nomination if he believes that a person is not suitable for the position.
RN has laid out a delicate stance on what she would do if she gets an outright majority. Bardella has said she would not lead an unstable minority government, but RN Marine Le Pen has opened the door to currying favor with other lawmakers if she falls just short of a minority.
What happens if Parliament does not have an absolute majority?
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said the main right, left and centre parties could form a temporary alliance to vote on individual legislative bills in the new parliament, a solution he preferred to forming a possible coalition government.
On the left, however, some have promoted the idea of forming a governing coalition. Unlike Germany and many other European countries, France has never had a broad coalition government in its modern political history.
Either scenario could generate political uncertainty and slow reform.
What happens if no deal is reached?
None of the three groups — the far right, Macron’s centrist coalition or the left — is likely to be large enough to govern on their own, to reach a coalition deal or to guarantee that they could lead a viable minority government.
In this scenario, France would risk political paralysis, with little or no legislation and a temporary government managing only basic day-to-day affairs.
Can Macron resign?
Macron has so far ruled out this possibility, but it could become more attractive to him if political paralysis prevails.
Neither Parliament nor the government can force the president to resign.
What would not happen under any circumstances?
The constitution states that new parliamentary elections cannot be held within a year, so the vote cannot be repeated immediately.
[ad_2]
Source link
