Economic Community of West African States – AES: A League of Disharmony!

It’s a divorce. The member states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), namely Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, seem to have decided to turn their backs on ECAO, the sub-regional organization. Created on September 16, 2023 by signing the Liptako-Gourma Charter, the AES announced its withdrawal from the Cdao last January. We then wondered if it was a communication move or a real conviction. The first AES summit, held on July 6, 2024 in Niamey (Niger), which culminated in the creation of the alliance, seemed to confirm the desire of the three heads of state to turn the page on the Cdao. Our analysis focuses first on form, then on substance and finally on opinion.

formal

As is known, the AES summit was held on the eve of the regular meeting of the ECOWAS Summit of Heads of State and Government. Calendar coincidence? Of course not. In diplomacy, symbols are very important. The leaders of the AES have perfect control over the Cdao calendar, and this was an ordinary meeting, so it was put on the agenda in advance.

The choice of the date of July 6 was therefore a deliberate one. Some would say it was a snub to the CDAO, or a way of self-humiliation. In fact, even informed observers knew that the dossiers of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would be on the table during the regular CDAO meeting. By organizing a summit the day before, the AES hoped to take the lead. As the saying goes: the best defense is offense! At the diplomatic level, it is better to act than to react.

The AES summit was still a formality when Captain Ibrahim Traor from Faso and Colonel Assimi Gota from Mali arrived in Niamey, organized with much fanfare amid cheering crowds. This showed that these officials benefited from popular support in the absence of legitimacy recognized by the international community. This was in stark contrast to the summit of heads of state and government held soberly in Cdao. This sobriety clearly did not mean a lack of popularity or legitimacy. Just two rooms, two atmospheres.

About Background

In essence, the AES summit was ratified by several strong declarations, the first of which is of course the creation of a federation. It must be said that this is another step forward in the desire of the three heads of state of the Central Sahel to walk hand in hand. In a federation, the member states commit to cooperate and work together in a certain number of previously defined areas, without any country giving up its sovereignty, as in a federation.

As for the AES Union, these areas are defense and security, diplomacy and development. If the Liptako-Gourma Charter focuses mainly on defense and security issues, the Federation Treaty expands the AES’s jurisdiction to diplomacy and development. Some specific measures were also announced, in particular: the creation of an investment bank; the establishment of a stabilization fund. As expected, Colonel Assimi Gota of Mali took over the rotating presidency of the Federation for a year. It must be said that Mali is the locomotive of the AES. So this is obvious.

On the Cdao side, we still want to reintegrate the Central Sahel countries into community organizations. Gone are the days of threatening tones in press releases! We can now call it “I love you and I don’t love either”! In fact, since February 2024, the Cdao has lifted sanctions on Niger and no longer demands that Bazoum return to power, but despite this, the AES countries do not seem to want any cooperation.

The election of Senegalese President Basilou Diomaye Faye was seen as a ray of hope. In fact, the latter has always shown a conciliatory stance towards Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, and he has also made explicit visits to the former two countries. Therefore, it is logical that he was designated by his peers to negotiate with the AES countries with a view to returning. Is it possible?

View

President Diomaye Faye has a difficult mission. In fact, it is impossible to bring the central Sahel countries back into the fold of community organizations, since the authorities and a large part of public opinion in these countries are still unhappy with the Cdao due to sanctions. This is especially true of Mali and Niger. What arguments will he use? What guarantees will he offer? If the task is not impossible, it is at least complicated.

The efforts of CDAO leaders are also part of the celebration of its fiftieth anniversary in 2025. To date, CDAO is considered one of the best regional organizations in terms of African integration, and the effective withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger could be a black mission. This evaluation has lasted for half a century. Therefore, there is an urgent need for action.

Returning to the AES, it must be said that from the confederation to the federation is another step. The logical continuation would be a federation in which the three states unite. But from our point of view, such a hypothesis requires the fulfillment of two conditions. First, there needs to be a consensus among the three peoples so that everyone agrees to give up part of their sovereignty. Secondly, and this is perhaps the key factor, it will depend on whether the three transitional presidents continue to stay in office. In fact, there is no indication that this dynamic will continue when a regime change occurs in one of the three countries. As the British say: wait and see!

Brehima Sidib

CY Cergy PhD Researcher, University of Paris