Crime is down. Kamala is up.

The focus is warranted: The 2020 surge in homicides was the largest in at least 55 years; no other year has seen an increase half as great. It has exacted a heavy toll. But the current decline demands equal attention — and it could be used politically to great effect, if the Harris-Waltz campaign so chooses.

There are some important stories here. One of the most compelling explanations for the homicide decline that began in 2023 is funding cuts — but not police funding cuts. Contrary to the narrative that “defunding the police” has led to budget cuts, police employment and especially police budgets have remained fairly stable; This is local No– The number of police employment has dropped significantly during the epidemic. John Roman, researcher at the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center think The spike in homicides appears to be closely tied to the pandemic-induced layoffs of government workers whose jobs aren’t “law enforcement” but who often help reduce crime and victimization: teachers, social workers, addiction counselors, after-school program directors. Moreover, the timing of the drop in homicides coincides with the return of local non-police government employment to pre-pandemic levels.

Now, I’m not saying that Roman’s theory is the only explanation (and I suspect he wouldn’t), but it’s worth careful consideration. But as far as I can tell, almost no one has given it much thought. The asymmetry here—in-depth coverage of rising homicides and passing mention of the sharp decline in political coverage—has very real political costs. Crime is a powerful issue politically, but it’s also a fairly concentrated and geographical issue. Most people have little exposure to crime on a daily basis. Unlike other politically salient topics, like the economy and jobs, most people’s understanding of crime is heavily influenced by how the media chooses to frame and discuss a phenomenon they haven’t personally experienced. If the media highlights rising crime rates and downplays falling crime rates, it helps to produce a constituency that is overly pessimistic about crime and how to deal with it.