Commentary: Trump 2.0 may prompt China to recalibrate its foreign policy

It’s not all gloom and doom

Chinese observers generally believe that Trump 2.0 will further deteriorate bilateral relations between the world’s two largest economies, which are already at a historic low. Trump has said in recent interviews that if elected, he would consider imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports.

Such concerns are understandable, but from China’s perspective, Trump’s presidency may not bring any hope for bilateral relations.

First, China’s leadership has long concluded that whether the next president is Trump or Kamala Harris, it is unlikely that relations will improve significantly. The best they can hope for is that relations will stabilize as China looks to focus on developing its domestic economy.

In many ways, Trump’s signature transactional approach to U.S. leadership in international affairs could work to China’s advantage geopolitically. In a recent interview, Trump reiterated his long-standing skepticism about defending Taiwan in the event of an attack from mainland China.

Trump 2.0 could help ease the Taiwan issue, which Beijing considers the most important red line in bilateral relations.

Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports could deal a significant blow to China’s exports and manufacturing, but should be understood in a global context, as he will go after all countries that have a trade surplus with the United States, including the European Union.

In addition, Trump has repeatedly warned NATO allies to increase defense spending. Trump advisers reportedly asked them to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP, a higher target than they agreed to. This will increase tensions between Washington and these European countries.

All of this could provide China with a much-needed opportunity to undermine the unified Western front that Washington has cobbled together to resist Beijing’s growing and assertive influence.