Commentary: Asia is now preparing for Kamala Harris, not just Donald Trump

China’s development trajectory remains largely unchanged

On the issue of China, Harris will undoubtedly continue the Biden administration’s approach of “invest, ally, and compete” – investing in the United States, allying with partners and allies, competing with China, and defending America’s core interests.

Thomas Weissler, former U.S. ambassador to APEC and former U.S. consul general in Hong Kong, noted that Harris is likely to follow Biden’s approach to economic relations with China, focusing on rejecting technology for strategic reasons and occasionally using tariffs to protect key industries threatened by China’s overcapacity.

“She may be tougher on human rights than Biden and more interested in linking climate policy with trade. Her biggest difference from Trump is more traditional trade protectionism, where Trump promised to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese products across the board to balance U.S. imports and exports, but Harris may worry that this will lead to inflation,” Mr. Tang told me.

To some extent, U.S. economic policy toward Asia will not deviate much from Harris or Trump’s policies.

No matter who wins, the United States will not return to the world of free trade.

“For too long, America’s trade policies and approach to the global economy have shipped middle-class jobs overseas, hollowed out our supply chains, rewarded corporate CEOs over workers, and failed to achieve inclusive economic growth,” the Democratic platform reads, calling for “a fairer and more durable global economic order that benefits the American people and people around the world.”

The Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs and calling for revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations status with the United States.

“Whether it’s Harris or Trump, the paradox is that the United States will continue to move away from trade while the rest of Asia embraces it,” Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and former president of the United Nations Security Council, told me.

He added: “Governments in the region — China, India and ASEAN — led by the CIA will continue their regional integration agenda while the United States sits on the sidelines, either under Harris or Trump.”