CNA Explains: Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and gone into exile. What happens next?

What caused Hasina to resign?

Patton pointed out that Hasina’s 15 years in power were rife with problems such as electoral fraud, corruption, nepotism and authoritarian repression.

“Overall, democracy seems to be in retreat. So there are many sources of anger, and civil service quotas are just one of them,” he said.

Patton said it was “not surprising” that Hasina was “ultimately forced to resign,” but her resignation was not a certainty from the start, given that she began her fourth consecutive term earlier this year.

Nusrat Chowdhury, associate professor of anthropology and sociology at Amherst College, said it’s clear to observers and residents alike that things can’t go back to the way they were before.

She said this was due to the violence that has broken out in the country over the past two weeks and that “the government really doesn’t seem to understand what the protesters are asking for.”

“At the same time, I think a lot of us were surprised at how quickly things were unfolding,” Chaudhry noted.

She described the quota movement as “the spark that ignited the flames of war” and noted that the “cumulative effect” of long-standing grievances and resentments were being expressed through the recent protests.

What’s next?

Chaudhry said the military, which is set to form an interim government, is seen as a non-partisan body with little power despite its high status.

“It will be difficult for the military or any opposition party to hijack this movement,” she said, noting that students had shown great passion and dedication by coming out to protest despite being shot at.

“If Bangladeshi protesters have confidence in the military, it is only temporary, and they will watch the military’s actions with great caution.”

Mubashar Hassan, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo in Norway, said it was “obvious” that students would not support military rule, given that one of the main reasons for the deterioration of the situation in Bangladesh was the “creeping dictatorship” that Hasina had established in the country.

“It is clear that students are skeptical of the military-led interim government, which is unlikely to break away from its authoritarian ways,” he said.

“At the same time, negotiation is key.”

However, Patton said permanent military rule was “certainly possible” and a risk.

“Once the excitement of what’s happening wears off, people are going to start to become more and more concerned about this,” he said.

Patton called Bangladesh a “great success story in the development field,” adding: “Hopefully the military will realise that they should be part of the success and not be blamed for being threatened, but new structures need to be put in place.”

If students do not accept military rule, a civilian government could operate as an interim government with military support and organize free and fair elections, Hassan said, noting that Bangladesh once had such a system.

Barton said that initially, many people wanted to focus on former Prime Minister Zia and hoped that she would play a leadership role.

He added: “Hopefully, the release of this important leader, as well as other political prisoners or those detained on political charges, will unfreeze the process of political competition and openness.”