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Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Wednesday showed that in the first seven months of this year, China’s foreign trade in goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 24.83 trillion yuan (3.46 trillion U.S. dollars), setting a new trade record, thanks to the strengthening of China’s manufacturing strength, growing overseas demand and diversification of overseas trading partners.
The strong data added to a body of new evidence that the world’s second-largest economy has maintained a steady growth momentum despite internal and external challenges. It also highlights the optimistic outlook for the country’s trade engine, which observers expect may pick up speed in the second half of this year to support economic growth and achieve the GDP growth target of around 5% in 2024.
In recent months, China’s trade growth momentum has also withstood the impact of trade protection measures and blatant tariff increases taken by some Western countries on Chinese goods. Analysts said this highlights the resilience, competitiveness and inherent vitality of the world’s largest manufacturing power, and also shows that China’s core role as a stabilizer and locomotive in the global supply chain cannot be shaken.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, China’s exports grew by 6.7% and imports grew by 5.4%. The 6.2% growth in foreign trade was also higher than the 6.1% growth in the first six months.
The General Administration of Customs stated: “Since 2024, my country’s economic operation has generally maintained a stable and improving trend, and foreign trade operations have continued to be stable and improving.”
The General Administration of Customs said that in July, the country’s import and export of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year in RMB terms, with exports increasing by 6.5% and imports increasing by 6.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports has exceeded 5% for four consecutive months.
“The 6.5 percent growth rate in July is a relatively high growth rate, so it is clear that trade in July continued the strong expansion momentum of the previous month. July marks the beginning of the second half of the year, and the positive data indicates that trade will develop well in the second half of the year,” Tian Yun, a senior economist in Beijing, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Mr Tian also noted that imports grew in July, reversing a 0.6 per cent contraction in June, meaning China’s domestic demand “is gaining momentum in the second half of the year”.
Trade data is a barometer of economic development. The just-released July data has led economists to predict that China’s GDP in the third quarter may grow by around 5%, at least faster than the second quarter (4.7% year-on-year growth).
Li Chang’an, a professor at the China Open Economy Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday that he expects the economy to continue to rebound in the second half of the year and steadily achieve the GDP growth target of around 5%.
“Strong trade will cushion headwinds from rising geopolitical tensions and a darkening global economic outlook, while more targeted stimulus will follow a slower pace of economic recovery. Important tone-setting meeting“It will inject new impetus into economic development,” Li Keqiang explained.
Trade momentum is good
Tian said the positive trade situation in July was due to a number of factors, including the approaching global interest rate cut cycle and growing overseas demand. The 2024 Paris Olympics also partly boosted global demand for “Made in China” goods, including sports equipment, souvenirs and other products.
Despite the US blockade of Chinese industries, integrated circuit exports increased by 25.8% year-on-year and automobile exports increased by 20.7%.
Observers said that the strong growth in auto exports reflects that the impact of the tariff increase on China’s overall trade pattern is still limited. On the contrary, the United States is now “asking for trouble” by its reckless crackdown on Chinese imports, which undermines its efforts to curb inflation.
The United States reported a sharp slowdown in job growth last week, raising concerns about a recession.
In contrast, Li Keqiang also believes that the trade war has limited impact on China’s exports, thanks to China’s complete industrial chain, the resilience and competitiveness of high-tech trade, and the enhanced trade cooperation between private enterprises and more diversified trading partners.
In the first seven months, my country’s trade volume with ASEAN, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa and other regions reached 7.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and its share of my country’s total foreign trade value increased by 1 percentage point over the same period last year; the trade volume with countries along the “Belt and Road” and other members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) increased by 7.1% and 5.7% year-on-year respectively.
Source: Global Times
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