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The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has reiterated its previous warnings about the likelihood of extreme weather across the Caribbean in 2024.
Predicting climate anomalies for the year
According to the latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF predicts that June to August will be a severe period of climate.
The emergence of La Niña, which is characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to coincide with unusually warm conditions in the tropical North Atlantic.
This combination is expected to trigger a range of extreme weather, including an extremely hot season with recurring heat waves, an active Atlantic hurricane season and a season of heavy rains.
Severe weather conditions possible
The forecast also points to an increased risk of frequent and intense rainfall, which could lead to severe flooding, flash floods and other related hazards.
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The situation could worsen if Saharan dry air occurs more frequently than normal, as this could disrupt storm and shower activity and could exacerbate water shortages caused by low rainfall and high evaporation rates during the previous dry season.
Drought issues across the region
Severe short-term drought conditions are already occurring in several areas, including Belize, Martinique, eastern French Guiana, northern Guyana, and Suriname, while long-term drought is occurring in eastern Cuba, Guadeloupe, northern Guyana, Trinidad, and parts of Suriname.
Heat stress will continue to intensify by the end of 2024
From September to November, the Caribbean region is expected to continue to experience warmer night and day temperatures and increased humidity. These conditions are likely to lead to frequent episodes of heat stress.
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These months are the peak of the late rainy season, characterised by unusually warm North Atlantic tropical cyclones and a persistent La Niña pattern that leads to higher temperatures and humidity.
The combination of these factors is expected to not only enhance heat stress but also increase the likelihood of severe weather impacts, including more frequent tropical cyclones and unusually heavy rainfall.
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