Can our fertility rate really remain normal?

All over the world, Family size is shrinking.

In some wealthy countries, the rate is now low enough that The population is decreasingAt least in some countries, it is clear that this trend will not necessarily remain stable everywhere. In South Korea, for example, the average number of children per woman is now 0.72, expected to continue to decline(A stable population requires 2.1 live births per woman.) It is almost impossible for this to happen again.

But is this a bad thing? Is it worth addressing through policy?

Understandably, many people are reluctant to consider family size as a policy issue. On a personal level, if people want children, they should have them, and those who don’t want them should definitely not become parents.

There’s always something unsavory about statements about what the population or birth rate “should” be—especially given that The horrific history of mass sterilization In the name of “fixing” high fertility rates for the benefit of the world. (It turns out that the talk of fertility rates leading to global collapse Totally wrong. and atrocities Large-scale There is no benefit for the poorest people in the world…

It is also disgusting to treat children as tools and create new human beings for a national political project. I have three children and plan to have three more, but I see people online declaring that they will “Beyond the Left” So that their political views dominate the next generation. Don’t they realize that children are people too, and they often disagree with their parents?

People who talk a lot about their obligation to have as many children as possible don’t usually like their children or their lives. This is the most offensive aspect of parenthood. And it’s an exclusive view — those on the right Defending parental rights Often those For decades, they have tried to prevent people like me from getting married and having children..

But having said that… I do think that population decline is a bad thing and needs to be addressed through policy. Many goods in modern society are easier to supply at scale, so a society with a declining population will be poorer. Productivity gains will go to make up for our losses, not improve quality of life.

When the population of each town and county Drop by halfwhich has profoundly harmful effects on those who remain, and I imagine that countries that lose half their population will be no different. When birth rates drop to extremely low levels, countries tend to take extreme (and quite stupid and usually ineffective) measures to deal with it, starting with State-run dating app arrive Declare a national emergency.

In my opinion, the healthiest policy approach is to mainstream family-centered policies. forward The country declared a state of emergency and normal. Basics Desire for children — not to achieve some national goal, but simply for basic human reasons — is a common, healthy, and absolutely acceptable thing to do without crossing any moral boundaries.

Although there are extremists on the Internet Call for voluntary extinction of humanity Leave the Earth to more valuable animals, as extremists on the Internet call for End feminism and ban birth controlmost people in the United States have kidsThey love their children and put them first. Many of them Will choose Have more children if structural factors such as housing and education allow it.

In the United States, what often prevents people from having a desirable home is not ideology but the frustrating mundaneity of life. Preventing or delaying people from having childrenOr have any number of children.

There’s a cultural shift here, too: I’ve talked to a lot of young people who, because of declining church attendance and fewer third places where they can hang out with people at different stages of life, never spend time with babies and children. It’s hard to figure out whether you want kids if you have to make the decision blindly.

It’s hard to want children if you’re told they’d be a burden to the world. Worried that climate change will make them infertileStill more people view parenting as an indulgence that needs to be justified rather than a prosocial act to build a better world.

What I hope for is a cultural and policy conversation about how to support families that starts with addressing these issues, starting with simple premises that I think most people agree on: that having children is a wonderful thing and a source of joy and meaning in life, though it is far from the only source of joy and meaning in life; that we can do more to build communities where children are supported, welcomed, and meaningfully independent; that people who don’t want children shouldn’t have them, but people who do want them should Do Hopefully the kids will be supported and make this a priority.

I think a healthy culture is one that affirms that the world we live in is a good place, a great place to raise the next generation, that it is getting better and better, and that our children will be part of the great project that continues to make it better.

There’s a huge gap right now between people talking about having kids online and the actual experience of being a parent, and I think closing that gap, even just a little bit, will put us in a better position to have what is probably one of the most important conversations that society can have.