Can Australia finally overtake the United States in the swimming medal table? The final day will tell

“It depends on whose system you use,” Gaines wrote.

Gaines was also asked if this was the toughest Olympic swimming in U.S. history.

“It’s been tough, no doubt about it,” he wrote.

The Americans appear headed for their worst pool medal total since 1988. That’s largely because French superstar Leon Marchand and Canadian Summer McIntosh have been stealing gold medals from the Americans in the individual medley and butterfly events.

Australia’s hopes of breaking the record of nine swimming gold medals won at the Tokyo Olympics three years ago have all but ended. Still, the competition was satisfying.

Here are the upcoming matches and predictions for their outcomes.

Women’s 50m Freestyle

prophecy: Sarah Sjöström (Sweden)
Head to Head: Australia leads 7-6

Sjostrom’s upset win in the 100m freestyle showed she’s in top form in the one-lap sprint. She solidified her credentials by breaking the Olympic record in the semifinals on Saturday with a time of 23.66 seconds. Anything less than a gold medal for Sjostrom would be the biggest upset of the week. Australians Shayna Jack and Meg Harris need to break the 24-second mark – the former having done it only once – to have a chance of winning Australia’s eighth gold medal. American Gretchen Walsh was the second-fastest swimmer in Sunday’s final at 24.17 seconds.

Men’s 1500m Freestyle

prophecy: Daniel Whiffin (Ireland)
Head to Head: Australia leads 7-6

A few months ago, Australian Sam Short was expected to win a medal. But on Saturday, in surprising circumstances, he crashed out in the preliminaries of the longest Olympic swim. Short’s time of 14:58.15 put him 13th overall, more than 20 seconds slower than when he won bronze at last year’s world championships. With no Australians in the race, American Bobby Fink will be the danger man, and if all goes well, he could break the world record. Australians should cheer for Ireland’s Daniel Wiffin, who won the 800m freestyle with a smooth, controlled performance in the water. Wiffin was five seconds faster than Fink in the preliminaries.

Men’s 4x100m Individual Medley

prophecy: USA
Head to Head: 7-7 Lock

Australia’s lack of depth in the men’s backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly means that in this event, it is unlikely that Australia will win a gold medal. The United States has never lost this event at the Olympics and should win, but China has many stars, especially breaststroker Qin Haiyang and 100m freestyle world record holder Pan Zhanle. American butterfly swimmer Caeleb Dressel and freestyler Jack Alexy have not performed well this week. Who would have thought that Australia would cheer for the Chinese team?

Women’s 4×100 medley

prophecy: USA
Head to Head: The United States won the gold medal with an 8-7 score.

Australia won the event in Tokyo but faces a tough task to beat the United States, which should feature Reagan Smith, Lily King, Gretchen Walsh and either Kate Douglas or Tori Haskell. Australia could field Kelly McKeon, Jenna Strauch, Emma McKeon and Molly O’Callaghan. China is also not out.

O’Callaghan believes Australia can still lead the United States in the medal table, as they did at the Fukuoka World Championships, winning gold medals 13 to 7. Some of those gold medals came in events outside the Olympic program, such as McKeown’s victory in the 50m backstroke.

“Absolutely. I’ll always support the Dolphins,” O’Callaghan said. “We’re going to be very proud no matter what … it’s a small country and a small team. To have this much success in a short period of time and for everyone to give their all, it means everything.”

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