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IIn response to a letter published in the Saturday Sun on August 17 questioning the Central Bank of Barbados’ economic reporting and analysis, the Bank of Barbados reiterates its strong commitment to accuracy, transparency and public trust – values that have been at the heart of our institution’s more than 50-year history. The Bank of Barbados recognises that accurate, transparent and objective economic reporting plays a key role in maintaining public confidence and takes great care to ensure that the information we publish is both reliable and reflects current economic realities.
Economic data, including economic growth, nominal GDP, inflation and unemployment statistics, are produced in accordance with best practices. While the Barbados Statistics Service (BSS) is responsible for producing the majority of data, we rigorously review its submissions to ensure their completeness and reliability. Our reports are based on a strong statistical framework, supported by rigorous analysis, and are frequently reviewed by international partners such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ensure their accuracy.
The 2023 GDP estimates, compiled by the BSS and reported by the central bank, have been reviewed and validated by an IMF technical assistance mission. We are confident that this external review provides further assurance of the validity of our data.
Specific concerns have been raised about our estimates of tourism receipts and their contribution to GDP. To clarify, the estimated performance of tourism receipts in the first half of 2024 is comparable to the first half of 2007, when Barbados also hosted a major international cricket tournament. In both cases, we observe a significant increase in the ratio of tourism receipts to GDP – from 15.9% in 2023 to 20.9% in 2024. This is consistent with the increase from 22.7% to 27.5% between 2006 and 2007.
The tourism forecast for the first half of 2024 is supported by several key indicators:
- Long-term arrivals increased by 17.9% in the first half of 2023 (Source: Barbados Statistics Office).
- Hotel room rates increased by an average of 10%, with particularly strong growth in the second quarter, up 13.3% from the second quarter of 2023 (source: Smith Travel Report).
- Cruise arrivals increased by 17.9%, with cruise calls rebounding sharply in the second quarter of 2024 (Source: Barbados Bureau of Statistics).
- Food prices generally rose by 5.3%, indicating that tourists spent more on food, leading to higher tourism expenditure. Together, these data support our forecast of 4.5% economic growth in the first half of 2024. We remain confident in our assessment, which reflects the strong recovery of the tourism industry after the epidemic, driving economic expansion in other sectors.
We acknowledge that some Barbadians are concerned about the apparent disconnect between economic reports and the reality they are experiencing. It is important to understand that while the economy may be growing, it takes time for the benefits of that growth to be felt by every member of society – a phenomenon seen across the globe, including in advanced economies such as the United States. This is why we have consistently stressed in our economic reviews the need for increased investment to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth that improves the lives and livelihoods of all Barbadians.
We welcome public discussion of our economic commentary and are committed to working with stakeholders to address any genuine concerns. Where there are discrepancies between the figures we report and independent analysis, we welcome dialogue to assess and validate the numbers. Our primary goal is to provide the most accurate and comprehensive picture of Barbados’ economic performance, although we recognise the inherent challenges of forecasting in a dynamic and uncertain global environment.
We want to assure all Barbadians that we will never manipulate or distort economic data. We will continue to refine our models and methodologies to ensure that the Central Bank remains a reliable source of clear and accurate economic information.
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