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Madrid (Euronews) – The Mexican financial markets, which are made up of different economists and analysts in the country, have lowered their forecasts for the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 and 2025, while maintaining the inflation forecasts roughly stable in 2024 and slightly worsening in 2025.
Specifically, analysts expect GDP to grow by 2% in 2024, while they predict growth of only 1.68% in 2025, which is nearly two-tenths lower than calculated last month.
The downward revision in the market is shocking, as growth of around 2.3% was previously expected for 2024.
he #Bank of Mexico The results of the June 2024 private sector economic experts’ expectations survey were released. You can find them here: https://t.co/1WevSOOU6d pic.twitter.com/hLVpLfZvhx
— Banco de Mexico (@Banxico) July 1, 2024
As for inflation forecasts, it actually remains stable. The market expects the price index to fall to 4.25% year-on-year in 2024, but it is expected to increase by 3.81% year-on-year in 2025, almost one-tenth more than the previous forecast.
Their monthly inflation growth forecasts for the remaining months of 2024 were all raised, except for June, when they expect inflation to be 0.21%.
Regarding factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth over the next six months, expert They believe that, overall, the main issues are related to governance (56%) and internal economic conditions (18%).
At a specific level, the main factors were internal political uncertainty (18% of respondents); public insecurity issues (14% of responses); other lack of rule of law issues (10% of responses); a lack of structural change in Mexico (8% of responses); and corruption (another 8%).
“Real GDP growth expectations for 2024 and 2025 declined from last month, but the median forecast for 2025 remained at a similar level.”
Private Sector Economist Expectations Survey: June 2024
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