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President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race adds to global uncertainty at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more aggressive China in Asia, and a strengthening of the far right in Europe. During his five years in politics, Biden has developed many personal relationships with foreign leaders that none of the potential candidates to replace him have. Following his retirement announcement, messages of support and gratitude poured in from around the world for his years of public service. The many foreign policy challenges facing the next U.S. president make clear how much what happens in Washington matters to the rest of the world. Let’s take a look at some of these challenges.
Israel and the Palestinians
President Biden’s strong support for Israel stems from his half-century of support for Israel as a senator, vice president and president since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump who clashed with Biden in recent months over Israel’s bombing and siege of Gaza, did not immediately comment on President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.
Other Israeli officials praised Biden’s steadfast defense of the country. Defense Minister Yoav Galant thanked President Biden for his “unwavering support,” while President Isaac Herzog praised him as a “true ally of the Jewish people.”
Before he travels to Washington on Monday to address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, Netanyahu said that “regardless of who the American people elect as president, Israel will remain an indispensable and powerful ally of the United States.”
With Vice President Kamala Harris seen as the most likely replacement for Biden, Israelis are struggling to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country, which faces growing global isolation over its fight with Hamas.
Israel’s left-wing daily Haaretz published an article analyzing Ms. Harris’ reputation as a tough voice who has often strongly criticized Israel for not doing enough to protect civilians.
Alon Pinkas, former Israeli Consul General in New York, said
“When Biden leaves office, Israel loses a powerful backer of a democratic Jewish state.”
Palestinians interviewed on Monday in the central Gaza city of Deir el-Balah said it did not matter who the Democratic candidate was as long as Israel continued to drop U.S.-made bombs on the enclave.
“We consider the United States a partner in the attack on Gaza,” said Hassan Shakalih.
“Both (Biden and Harris) ultimately have the same platform and a history of supporting hardline Israeli policies against the Palestinians,” said Tahani Mustafa, a Palestinian analyst at the Crisis Group.
Ukraine
Whichever Democratic candidate is likely to follow Biden’s lead in providing firm military support to Ukraine, but there is growing dissatisfaction in Ukraine and Europe with the Biden administration over the slow pace of aid to the United States and restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
“Most Europeans understand that Ukraine will increasingly become a burden for them. Everyone is trying to prepare for any possible outcome,” said Suda David Wilp, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Berlin office.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Platform X that he respected Biden’s “difficult but firm decision” to withdraw from the race and thanked him for helping “prevent (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from invading our country.”
Former President Donald Trump promised to end Russia’s war on Ukraine in a day if he was elected, a prospect that heightened Ukrainian concerns that Russia might be allowed to keep territory it has occupied.
Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential candidate, is one of the most vocal opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine in Congress.
Russia, meanwhile, has downplayed the significance of the contest, insisting that Moscow will continue to act in Ukraine no matter what happens.
“The objectives of the special military operation will be achieved,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on the Telegram messaging app, citing the Kremlin’s account of the war in Ukraine.
Europe and NATO
Many Europeans would be happy to see Trump lose, as he has spent years disparaging the EU and harshly criticizing NATO. Trump’s seemingly dismissive tone toward European allies during last month’s presidential debate did little to ease those concerns.
On the other hand, Biden supports close ties between the United States and EU leaders. These ties became apparent after Biden decided to withdraw from the race.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult of his life”. New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he respected “Mr Biden’s decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people”. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called President Biden a “proud American with an Irish soul”.
Analysts say the elections will determine whether NATO will continue its pace of support for Ukraine and whether the authoritarian state’s ambitions can be kept in check.
“They don’t want Donald Trump to be president. So there’s a sense of relief but also a lot of nervousness about Biden’s decision to drop out of the race,” said Jeremy Shapiro, director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
depth
In recent months, both Biden and Trump have tried to tell voters who can best resist Beijing’s growing military and war-fighting power and protect American businesses and workers from China’s high-priced imports.
President Biden has raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and former President Trump promised to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products.
Trump’s “America First” mantra heightened tensions with Beijing. But disagreements with the geopolitical rival and economic giant over war, trade, technology and security have continued under Biden.
China’s official response to the U.S. presidential election has been cautious.
“The U.S. election is domestic politics of the United States. I have no comment on it,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning.
Iran
The United States faces a region in turmoil as Iran-backed Middle Eastern groups become increasingly drawn into Israel’s war with Hamas. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first attack on Tel Aviv last week, sparking Israeli retaliation inside war-torn Yemen. Cross-border attacks between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group and the Israeli military have raised concerns about a full-scale regional conflict.
Hamas, also backed by Iran, continues to fight Israel in a nine-month-long war that has killed 39,000 Palestinians and displaced more than 80 percent of Gaza’s population.
The United States accuses Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to an unprecedented level of 60%.
Biden sought to reverse his predecessor’s hardline stance after then-President Donald Trump withdrew from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018. But his administration has failed to renegotiate the accord and has kept crippling sanctions in place.
The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline ally of the supreme leader, in a helicopter crash has brought a reformist figure to the Iranian presidency. Massoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone toward the United States.
In a conference call on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani downplayed Biden’s withdrawal.
“For us, the coming and going of the government and people at the head of the U.S. administration is not important in itself,” he said. “What can change the relationship is a fundamental change in the hostile policy of the (U.S.) toward Iran.”
Mexico
The historically close relationship between Mexico and the United States has been marked in recent years by disputes over trade, energy and climate change. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who took office in 2018, has worked with both the Trump and Biden administrations to reduce illegal immigration at the southern U.S. border.
On Friday, Mexico’s president called Trump a “friend” and said he would write a letter warning him not to promise to close the border or accuse migrants of bringing drugs into the United States.
“I’m going to prove to him that immigrants are not bringing drugs into the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border is not going to solve anything and it can’t solve anything.”/VOA
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