Analysis/India, Qatar, Türkiye? Who can mediate in Ukraine?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi positioned himself as a mediator during his last visit to Kiev. But which countries could one day influence the end of the war in Ukraine?

Creating opportunities for negotiations – this has long been considered a possible goal of Ukraine, which is why Ukrainian troops invaded Russian territory on August 6. According to the news of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, after the invasion of the Kursk region, the aggressors aimed to create a middle ground on the territories. Military experts doubt whether Ukraine can keep these territories for a long time. But in Kiev, the situation seems clear – if one day negotiations begin, Russia will not withdraw its troops from Donbass, Zaporizhia or Crimea without asking for a price. Negotiations are still far away, but when they begin sooner or later, there are several countries that can be considered as mediators.

India

“India firmly believes that no problem can be solved on the battlefield,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Warsaw before traveling by train to Kyiv to meet President Zelensky in Kyiv this week. Modi said he was looking for “prospects for a peaceful resolution of the current conflict in Ukraine.” India has never publicly condemned the Russian invasion and has maintained close economic cooperation with Russia, buying large amounts of Russian weapons. From the beginning of the war, India bought more oil from Russia, which helped its military industry. The footage of Modi hugging the Russian president in Moscow did not make India’s mediation efforts any easier. It remains to be seen whether Modi is suitable to serve as a mediator after hugging President Zelensky in Kyiv. Modi himself said he is ready.

depth

Even China has long been on Russia’s side from an economic perspective, using it as a sales market, but Russia is also an important supplier of raw materials to China. Beijing has always abstained from votes in the Security Council. Instead of criticizing Russia for the war, President Xi Jinping received Putin with military honors in May. However, China is willing to act as a mediator. On February 24, 2023, the first anniversary of the Ukrainian war, Ukraine put forward a 12-point plan outlining China’s position. The main points are territorial integrity, respect for international law and protection of civilians, but also rejection of unilateral sanctions.

China sent envoys to some neutral countries in the southern hemisphere. It did not attend the international peace conference in Switzerland in June 2024 – Ukraine accused Beijing of rejecting this format at the time.

Brazil

After the Chinese envoy visited Brazil, Brazil and China jointly proposed a six-point plan. It requires all parties not to further expand the conflict zone and requires Russia and Ukraine to hold direct dialogue. It is necessary to exclude the possibility of using weapons of mass destruction, protect civilians and exchange prisoners.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has not had any success as a mediator. Meetings with both Putin and Zelensky in 2023 failed, and he said neither side was interested in peace. At the Swiss meeting, da Silva did not sign the final document, saying that no conflict can be resolved by talking to only one side. But when the time for negotiations comes, Brazil is an important partner on the diplomatic stage for both countries. People think Lula can achieve something.

Qatari

Qatar is acting as a mediator not only in the Middle East conflict, but also in the war between Russia and Ukraine. He reported a few days ago that even the promised secret talks were held in Doha until early August. The Washington PostThese actions were thwarted by the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. In recent years, Qatar has gained an important position as a mediator in numerous conflicts.

The small but wealthy Gulf state appears to have learned lessons from the diplomatic clashes and boycotts of other Arab and North African countries from 2017 to 2021, and that having stable relations with many different partners is also beneficial to its security.

turkey

In the spring of 2022, Russia and Ukraine almost agreed to a ceasefire after negotiations on Turkish soil, but the massacre by Russian troops in Busha, Ukraine, dashed hopes of ending the fighting.Since Turkey is located on both sides of the Bosphorus Strait and controls access to the Black Sea, it can exert pressure on both sides.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used his diplomatic capital to reach an agreement with both sides to allow safe transportation of Ukrainian wheat by sea from July 2022 to July 2023. Russia no longer wants to extend the transportation mechanism. The remaining evidence shows that Turkey can successfully mediate between Russia and Ukraine.

South Africa, Senegal, Zambia, African Union

Perhaps the most underestimated mediator in this conflict comes from Africa, a continent that is important to both warring parties: Russia is systematically expanding its influence, especially in West and Central Africa. Ukraine has taken action against this in some quarters and is looking for potential allies – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba visited Zambia, Malawi and Mauritius in early August.

Zambian President Hakaande Hichilema has already stepped in personally to mediate: in June 2023, he travelled with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Senegalese President Macky Sall and Comorian President Azali Assoumani (then Chairman of the African Union). As well as representatives of other states in Kiev and St. Petersburg. But the trip did not bring any tangible results. However, some African countries continue to participate, for example in Switzerland or in the next round of talks in early August in Jeddah. Many African countries are interested in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. /DW