Analysis: As the likelihood of Trump 2.0 being elected president rises sharply, are Southeast Asian countries ready?

What is uncertain, she noted, is how those three states would respond to a Trump presidency, as Trump’s voter base “may be more inclined than Biden to take a stronger pro-Israel stance on the ongoing war in Gaza.”

Ms Lee said Southeast Asia would have to confront some “hard truths about US leadership in the region”, regardless of who was president.

Its domestic politics have become more polarized and dysfunctional, Protectionist sentiment She pointed out that the trend of globalization will continue, and its strategic competition with China will only intensify and enter new areas and key fields.

In June, for example, the U.S. imposed tariffs on some solar products from four Southeast Asian countries — Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam — in a move aimed at combating what officials said were efforts by some Chinese companies to evade U.S. tariffs by moving solar panels to other countries.

“So industrial policy is here to stay,” Ms Lee said.

How Southeast Asia can prepare

Experts say there are ways the region can prepare for a possible second Trump presidency.

Dr. Pitak Dumlongi said countries could redouble their efforts to deepen regional economic integration and become more attractive places for investment and trade.

If Trump were to withdraw the United States from any regional trade or economic agreements after being elected president, countries could engage with the United States in the following ways: Bilateral approaches and identification of common interests Promote cooperation in areas such as sustainable development, innovation or the digital economy.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)ASEANChina should also continue to uphold ASEAN’s centrality and the international rules-based order to safeguard its own interests, she added.

Dr Shafia said Asean should find ways to make itself more “in line with the interests of major powers”.

“So far, ASEAN has not been ready to make the institution more adaptable to current global challenges,” she said.

“We are still carrying on with business as usual, meeting after meeting, a format that I think is not attractive to many of our key dialogue partners, including the United States,” she said.

But she added that because of the way ASEAN’s bureaucracy is designed, there are “no easy answers” to changing the status quo.