Afghanistan: BND surprised by rapid Taliban advance

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BND surprised by Taliban’s rapid advance

As of: 6:49 p.m. | Reading time: 2 minutes

Photos of Tanja von Uslar-Gleichen in 2019 — Tanja von Uslar-Gleichen 2019

Source: picture alliance/dpa/photothek.net/BND/Thomas Imo

According to the then deputy director of the Federal Intelligence Service, the agency relied heavily on the United States in assessing the Taliban’s combat effectiveness. In 2021, the Taliban’s rapid advance surprised the German Federal Intelligence Service.

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GermanyAccording to then-Vice President Tania Freiin von Uslar-Gleichen, the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) was surprised by the speed of the Taliban’s offensive in August 2021. “We did not expect that Kabul would be defeated without a fight on August 15,” she said as a witness at the German Bundestag’s Afghanistan Inquiry Committee on Thursday.

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The BND was criticized primarily for its assessment of the situation at a crisis group meeting at the Berlin Foreign Ministry on August 13, 2021, two days before the capture of Kabul. There, the BND stated that it was “unlikely” that the Taliban would take over Kabul before September 11, 2021.

Von Uslar-Glechen told the investigative committee that the information was based on statements by “the Americans.” U.S. President Joe Biden announced the official withdrawal date several months ago.

Taliban fighters patrol the streets of Kabul in a pickup truck (2021)

Source: Photo Alliance/dpa/Oliver Weiken

Von Usla-Glechen said that in its report, the BND mainly assessed the political and military strength of the Taliban. From the BroadCast Unitedligence service’s point of view, they had no chance of militarily capturing the city within 48 hours. “Things turned out differently,” said the former vice president. In the end, Kabul surrendered without a fight and was handed over to the Taliban.

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Nonetheless, von Ussla-Glechen defended the BND’s assessment at the time. It was “the best representation” at the time. At the aforementioned crisis group meeting, several “tipping points” were pointed out that could accelerate the transfer of power. These factors included an early withdrawal of US troops or the evacuation of international embassies.