After ban, Thai opposition likely to fight in parliament rather than on streets

The dissolution of the Progress Party is the latest setback for Thailand’s main political parties, which have been engaged in a two-decade power struggle with influential conservatives, old wealthy families and the royalist military.

BANGKOK, Thailand — Four years ago, Thailand’s opposition Future Forward Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for trying to change a law that shields the powerful monarchy from criticism, sending supporters into the streets and sparking months of civil unrest.

However, even if such a large protest were to happen again at the same court on Wednesday, it is unlikely to happen again. Move Forward, the successor to the disbanded Future ForwardBecause this time the opposition holds the largest number of seats in parliament and its core members are preparing to fight for their cause in parliament and at the ballot box.

“We went through this four years ago. So we are not new,” said party leader Pita Lingjaronrath “I want to prove to the powers that be, and to the world, that dissolving political parties is futile,” he told Reuters before the ruling.

If he didn’t Blocked by military-appointed SenatePita would have been prime minister if the Progress Party, which emerged from a youth movement over the past four years and came third in the first vote after the 2014 military coup, had won last year’s election.

Even after the ruling, the party remains the largest voting bloc in parliament and has said it will create a new political body to house its 143 lawmakers.

Analysts say that under Thai parliamentary rules, these lawmakers can join any party of their choice, and opponents will try to lure them to that party.

In 2020, only 10 of the 81 Future Forward MPs defected to the ruling Conservative Coalition. This time, party leaders say they are confident all will stay with the party.

“We have not verified the list yet, but we are very confident that everyone will follow us,” Kadima deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul told reporters on Wednesday.

Forward’s progressive agenda brought Thailand’s influential monarchy into mainstream political discourse through a campaign promise to reform strict lèse-majesté laws.

The party rode that agenda to victory in the 2023 election, a victory built on the easing of taboos on the monarchy sparked by 2020 protests against the dissolution of the Future Forward Party.

The dissolution of the Progress Party is the latest setback for Thailand’s main political parties, which have been engaged in a two-decade power struggle with influential conservatives, old money families and the royalist military.

Four prime ministers have been removed from office in the past 18 years by coups and court rulings.

“The decision is not surprising,” Matthew Wheeler, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a conflict resolution organization, said of the court’s ruling.

‘Pressure cooker’

Days before the court ruling, Pita had expressed confidence that he and the party would win the case, which stems from a complaint by the electoral commission against Kadima’s campaign to amend the constitution. lèse majeste law.

In January, the same court ruled that the party’s plans to reform the law were unconstitutional, forcing Kadima to abandon its campaign promises. The next step is to disband the party.

Kadima deputy leader Sirikanya said the new party born from the dissolution of Kadima might do things differently, but the foundation would not change: “We will continue to adhere to the core ideology.”

Pita told Reuters last month that the party had identified dozens of candidates from which it could build a multi-level leadership pipeline to ensure any new political vehicle it supports is quickly ready to fight in elections.

When Forward was first formed, its main political opponents were primarily military-backed parties that sought to suppress its rise.

Now, it also poses a threat to the ruling Pheu Thai Party, which is backed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra He made a dramatic return to Thailand just last year, when the country came to power.

“It’s a pressure cooker because on the one hand, support for the ‘Forward’ movement will grow,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“Then there will be an intensification of the repression of the Forward movement,” he said. “The ruling elites don’t seem to care about the dissolution of political parties, military coups … as long as they can stay in power.” Rappler.com