The Great Exchange between the West and the Russian Federation: What this means for Ukraine

The Kremlin is delighted with the return of spies and assassins, who exchanged American hostages and their own dissidents. But this in no way indicates that peace is imminent in Ukraine, writes The Washington Post. Moreover, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quick to refute any suggestion that the exchange marks a thaw in relations with the West that could open the way to peace talks over the war in Ukraine. Does Peskov’s statement indicate that Russia is abandoning the announced second peace summit, which Ukraine would have initiated in the fall, and continuing the war? Now that such concerns have arisen in Kiev, could the West and the Russian Federation hold secret negotiations on ending the war without Ukraine’s knowledge? With these questions, Review turned to experts.

Great exchange. Photo: Open Source

The “Grand Bargain” and the Possibility of a Negotiated End to the War

Political scientist and political consultant Vladimir Fesenko stressed that Russia did not recognize the peace summit initiated by Ukraine from the very beginning and immediately refused to participate in the second peace summit (through the statement of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) despite Ukraine’s open invitation.

“So Peskov said nothing new, which breaks the Russian strategy of forcing Ukraine to negotiate on its own terms, which is why Russia does not recognize the peace summit and will most likely not attend a second one. The only factor that could theoretically change Russia’s position is China. If Trump wins, the US election results could also be affected, but at the moment, it seems unlikely that Russia will attend a second peace summit. Experts point out that peace summits are not about negotiations to end the war, they can create preconditions for future negotiations.

In his opinion, the “grand exchange” has nothing to do with the subject of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Negotiations on this exchange lasted about two years. They have their own logic and are not directly related to the war in Ukraine. This exchange does not mean a thaw in relations between the West and Russia, but a return to the Cold War era in these relations in both form and content.

“There are no secret negotiations to end the war, or even any signs of such negotiations. Moreover, all serious players, including the Kremlin, know very well that it is impossible to reach an agreement on ending the war without the participation of all parties. This is just Russian propaganda, claiming that we are doing everything the Americans ask. At the same time, senior Russian representatives often complain to their American colleagues about Ukraine’s “disobedience”, saying that Ukraine has violated all the “rules”. Russia, the West and Washington are all talking about “red lines”, and Moscow is well aware that Ukraine will not be able to face the reality of any secret agreement. In addition, European countries also have a position in support of Ukraine. They will not agree to peace on Russia’s conditions. It is impossible to end the current war without negotiations with Ukraine.” – said Vladimir Fesenko.

At the same time, he agreed that the Ukrainian issue would be raised in any direct contacts between senior representatives of the United States and the Russian Federation (defense ministers, heads of special services). But experts emphasize that these are not negotiations.

“On the contrary, it was a discussion of specific issues related to the war (most often the topic of attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation, the supply of Western long-range weapons to Ukraine, and the risks of their use by Russia). It is well known that the Kremlin has long been waiting for the results of the US elections before deciding whether to negotiate. Further war strategy and tactics and the negotiation process. The Americans are also in no mood to negotiate on ending the Ukrainian war. Both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the topic of the Ukrainian war. Therefore, all real attempts to reach an agreement on the start of negotiations are: to agree on future negotiations, their format and agenda, and not to start negotiations after the end of the American elections!” Vladimir Fesenko noted.

Looking ahead to future negotiations, the interlocutor of the comment portal noted that it is likely that negotiations will be concluded, but not in secret. Any secret negotiations have no legitimacy for Ukraine and the international community.

We specialize in all aspects of the simulation process

Oleg Sahakyan, a political scientist and head of the Unified Coordination Center platform, noted that such exchanges are standard practice for Western intelligence services to interact with Russia. This practice has also happened before in the Soviet Union. Such exchanges will be carried out later.

“Thus, this does not actually mean a thaw in relations and the possibility of reaching an agreement with Russia on Ukraine. Moreover, this has nothing to do with Ukraine, because Putin, without taking any risks, won several benefits for himself: he released the murderer of the FSB agent Krasikov. Thus, he showed the Russian special forces that he would fight for them, thereby gaining a propaganda image of himself as a negotiator. The prisoners released by Russia are used to the maximum by the Russian machine, and at the same time the prisoners released by Russia are typical representatives of the Russian liberal intelligentsia, which, as we all know, will add more confusion and ambiguity to the end of Russian liberalism on the Ukrainian issue. For Ukraine, they will also continue to dominate a narrative that we can see before, which has become a point of tension between the so-called opposition in Ukraine and the Russian liberals. Obviously, this will have a negative impact on Ukraine’s efforts to support and strengthen sanctions against Russia in the capitals of major Western countries, the most important stars of which will be the released Russian opposition,” commented Oleg Sahakyan.

He drew attention to another point: the West, and Biden in particular, gained certain benefits, but was still on edge. Although this happened at a time when he did not particularly need them. Since this exchange was prepared in advance, when it was believed that Biden would run for reelection. Now this will not have any special electoral effect, because Biden is no longer a candidate.

But apart from this result, which does not actually affect Ukraine in any way, nor does it indicate the possibility of an agreement or thawing of relations with Russia, which has repeatedly ruled out participation in the negotiations. Agenda for the Ukrainian Peace SummitTherefore, there is no evidence that Russia is really ready for a negotiation process, and, on the contrary, is preparing for a further escalation of hostilities. Returning to the United States, although the power in Washington has not changed, it is meaningless to talk about any kind of negotiations, because Joe Biden is now a “lame duck”, and therefore, he cannot guarantee any obligations. Obviously, the United States must consider relations with Ukraine and China at the same time, and possibly with Russia and other entities that could participate in the negotiation process on the Russian-Ukrainian war, “the expert noted.

Oleg Sahakyan believes that we are dealing with a copycat process on all sides, because around the world, in view of the uncertainty surrounding the US elections and beyond, another round of hysteria entitled “Let’s start the peace process” has begun.

“It is clear that now Ukraine and Russia, as they have many times before, are competing before the eyes of the whole world over who will bear the responsibility for the impossibility of negotiations, and therefore Ukraine has been forced, despite the absurdity of this situation, when it is the victim, but still proves that we are committed to peace, we are ready to negotiate, but only if the negotiations on the Russian side are fair, peace is achieved fairly, and in them the issues of territorial integrity and sovereignty cannot be discussed, because this would be a violation of the UN Charter, at least. So there is no room for an open negotiation process, not before the UN elections, at least before the election of a new president in the United States, and there is no room for any hidden agreement, which will depend on a whole host of different factors, and by now the negotiations will most likely not succeed. “This is not a product of the real situation on the front or the real geopolitical situation, but is purely triggered by the uncertain presidential campaign in the United States,” Oleg Sahakyan concluded.

Read also the portal “Commentary” – Exchange of views of the Russian opposition Karamurza Suddenly gave a speech in defense of the Russian Federation.

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