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NEW DELHI, India — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the verge of winning a rare third term, but his shorter-than-expected tenure means he will have to rely more on the support of his allies, which means he must urgently address unemployment, inflation and economic disparity in the world’s most populous country.
Unlike the previous two elections, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) needs its alliance partners to secure a majority of 272 out of 543 seats in the lower house of parliament, based on the cumulative voting results on Tuesday, June 4.
Modi had set a target of winning more than 400 seats for his National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but it is leading in only about 290 seats, according to data provided by the Election Commission with three-quarters of the votes counted. The BJP itself is leading in 239 seats, compared with 303 in the last election in 2019.
Final results are expected late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
“It’s an insult that the BJP is dependent on its allies to form a government,” said Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington.
“At this stage, NDA allies will get their fair share of benefits, which will affect not only policy making but also the composition of the cabinet. (Earlier) the BJP was free to dictate with little regard for its alliance partners.”
Modi is a strong leader who has not relied on coalition partners in the past, so it is unclear whether he can handle it easily.
“Modi is not a known consensus figure. So it will be interesting to see how he handles the pull and pressure of the coalition government,” said Arati Jalat, a New Delhi-based political commentator.
Political analyst Rashid Kidwai said populist and welfare policies will “gain traction” because Modi will have to rely on regional leaders who support them, such as N. Chandrababu Naidu in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh and Nitish Kumar in the eastern state of Bihar.
Both Naidu’s Telugu Maharashtra Party and Kumar’s BJP (United) have said they will support Modi as prime minister.
Modi called his alliance’s victory historic and said “we will continue the good work of the past decade and continue to meet the aspirations of the people.”
The BJP campaigned on India’s stunning economic expansion, its growing international stature and its Hindu-first agenda, but acknowledged unemployment was a factor.
“Employment is our challenge and we will do our best,” said spokesman Gopal Krishna Agarwal.
India’s unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March, compared with about 6% before the coronavirus outbreak, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private think tank. Modi first came to power in 2014 promising to create 20 million jobs a year but has fallen far short of that goal.
The government’s estimate of the urban unemployment rate in the latest quarter, from January to March, showed that the urban unemployment rate for the 15-29 age group rose slightly to 17% from 16.5% in the previous quarter.
Even as India’s economy grows at a rate of more than 8%, hardship in rural areas has deepened as rising food prices have led to falling incomes.
Such economic growth means that wealth is concentrated in the hands of the richest 1% of India’s population.
While overall inflation is relatively low, hovering around 5%, food inflation of more than 8% since November 2023 has hit the poor hard. Vegetable and cereal prices rose by double digits for most of last year.
Voter turnout issue
Modi is seeking one of India’s most important elections in six weeks, after Most polls An opinion poll conducted before voting began predicted a huge victory for him, citing his personal popularity, free grain for the poor, new roads and bridges, and his support for the majority Hindu population.
But several party officials said the drop in voter turnout in the first phase of the seven-phase elections was worrying for the BJP. One poll watcher, who did not want to be named, said he received calls from “panicked” BJP officials asking “is there something wrong. Why are people not coming to vote?”.
Meanwhile, some analysts said during the televised debate that opposition efforts to win popular support with promises of affirmative action, more subsidies and more jobs were gaining traction.
That’s when Modi changed tack.
Earlier, he focused on issues such as economic development and India’s image, but later turned to accusing the opposition of favoring minority Muslims at the expense of Hindus.
“I think the polarising campaign that the prime minister has been running this time, and the kind of hyped media campaign that he’s been doing, shows that he’s worried,” said political commentator Arati Gerat.
The BJP says Modi is the best person to deliver its message.
“We discuss internally how factors like our jobs, economic development, India’s global image etc. sometimes do not play a decisive role,” said spokesman Agarwal.
“Politics being what it is, other factors determine the narrative and the BJP has to respond accordingly. For our narrative to work, the prime minister is the best communicator.”
However, as the BJP itself fails to secure a majority, its promises, such as a unified civil code for all religions and simultaneous state and national elections, may be shelved despite opposition from some Muslims. The BJP may adopt policies aimed at addressing more livelihood issues, as its allies demand.
“Modi seems to have lost his aura of electoral invincibility,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
“He remains extremely popular, and his party would likely fare worse without him. This is a leader who has repeatedly recovered from political and policy setbacks and retained significant public support. Judging by the results we are seeing today, that narrative of resilience has taken a severe blow.” – Rappler.com
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