Agricultural Movement 2024-2025: A Realistic Ambition?

The agricultural season was delayed, mainly due to the late arrival of rains. This general observation does not hide other difficulties for the 2024-2025 season, one of which is the lack of access to state-subsidized fertilizers. Although not enough, it would have allowed farmers to start the campaign peacefully. The latter must therefore now rely on their own resources, producing at high costs and with difficulty in profitability. Thus undermining the promise of food security and sovereignty.

“The first recorded rainfall was not up to par. Currently, farmers are in the middle of the planting period. The only region ahead is Sikasso,” revealed Lamine Coulibaly, communications officer at the Coordination of the National Farmers’ Organizations of Mali (CNOP). In this region, the first grains have even sprouted and some are close to maturity. In terms of inputs, the region has also received all the expected quantities of subsidized fertilizers. This makes the third region, located in the central Sudan region, a real exception and privileged area of ​​this operation, although expectations were high. Mali plans to produce 11.1 million tonnes of cereals in the 2024-2025 season, 12.1% more than forecast for 2023 and better than the 9.9 million tonnes in the previous season.

A means to achieve ambition

To achieve success, Mali must deploy a lot of resources and hope for adequate rainfall. Although it has been a long wait, the rainy season seems to have started since the end of June, with frequent and sometimes heavy rains in some places. According to experts, if the rainy season lasts until October, the campaign will go ahead as planned. However, for a successful campaign, rainfall is only one of the conditions. Another important pillar for high yields is the supply of fertilizers.

The CNOP findings show that, with the exception of Sikasso, no farmer receives a fertilizer subsidy. Farmers who pledge a bag of urea per hectare are obliged to buy fertilizer at market prices. Or 18,500 CFA francs in some places and up to 25,000 CFA francs in some areas. Phosphate fertilizer costs about 26,000 CFA francs. This leaves farmers with two options: either drastically reduce the area cultivated, expecting a significant drop in yields when little fertilizer is available, or go into debt, leading to higher production costs.

In rain-dependent cotton-producing regions, some districts have become frustrated by delays in rebate payments, with some simply abandoning the venture or drastically reducing acreage, some of which are yet to be paid in full.

If farmers do not understand the reasons for delayed deliveries of subsidized fertilizers, it is not surprising that this problem, which has unfortunately become a real thorn in the side, is not a problem. “Every year it is the same scenario. Fertilizers do not arrive when farmers need them,” noted a CNOP communications officer.

According to the analysis of the Coordination Council, the same problems occur every year, which is one of its recommendations for good activities. According to the report, fertilization should take effect at the end of May at the latest, because crops need fertilizers when they have water to promote growth. Distribution channels remain complex and are increasingly unable to meet farmers’ expectations.

Return to food crops?

Mahamadou Sogoba is a producer in the Dèbèla area, which brings together five village associations (AVs) in the Zamina commune in the M’Pessoba district. According to him, wintering there has gone quite well and if it continues like this, he hopes to meet expectations. He has been a producer in this area of ​​M’Pessoba since 1987, growing cotton, maize, sorghum and millet on about 11 hectares.

More abundant than last year, he prefers this year’s rains to last year’s drought. Fortunately, if there is a flood in the area, his area will not be affected. But the main difficulty pointed out by Mr Sogoba is the supply of fertilizers. “Especially for those who do not grow cotton,” he explained. What causes our food insecurity, Mr Sogoba warned, is the lack of fertilizers. Last year, they were “only allowed to bring 2 bags per hectare”. This year, “we force ourselves to apply 3 bags per hectare” because it is currently impossible to farm without fertilizers, especially with the degraded soils, he defended himself. After cotton and maize, the rest of the fertilizer subsidy is not provided to other cereals, including millet. Mr Sogoba added that because cotton was not planted earlier, the number of planned hectares was reduced, so “they want to keep what is left”.

Our interlocutors assured us that at their level they currently meet about 50% of the needs, but other AVs have much less. Therefore, farmers are still without fertilizers. The bags from the Agricultural Chamber “are handed to us that we must buy from them for 25,000 CFA francs”. This is far from being within everyone’s reach. For Mr Sogoba, therefore, the supply of fertilizers is essential to “be able to work and to cope with food insecurity”.

At this rate, cotton farming is at risk of being abandoned “because we don’t earn enough to buy food”. The price of millet is very high, especially when it is on sale.

Successful adaptation

Subsidized fertilizers are mainly for cotton farmers, but also for cereals, which is a continuing concern for farmers. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Covid-19 crisis, inflation has led to higher costs and created additional obstacles to fertilizer distribution, and the authorities are trying to contain these consequences. If the state continues to subsidize, only about 50% of demand will be met. In this situation, farmers can only do whatever they can to make ends meet.

This has prompted the CNOP to encourage farmers to use organic fertilizers in particular to continue to increase production and provide healthy food to the people. Another option is to develop agroecology for sound environmental management. According to farmers in Vakoro, in the Dioira region, this practice is beginning to catch on. It has allowed them to get by. The state adheres to the philosophy of subsidizing organic fertilizers more than chemical fertilizers.

In mid-July, 11% of the area was planted with rice. Agricultural officials explained that the percentage is lower than last year, but sowing can continue. For other cereals, the rate is 18%. As for cotton, 70% of the planned planting area is 757,000 hectares, while 90% was planted in the same period last year. If the season is not affected, the specified target seems very ambitious given the challenges that have been identified.

If the goal remains to provide farmers with the necessary quantities of fertilizer, the outcome of the campaign remains uncertain for many stakeholders. A producer in the area explained that in Diyala Sagu, wintering came late, not because of the rains, but because of insecurity. Now they are sowing by rotation, but it has not yet been completed. The main constraint “is the insecurity, which prevents us from cultivating”. Some limit themselves to 2 hectares instead of 10 to 15 hectares because they cannot go beyond 2 kilometers. The same phenomenon leads to the lack of access to fertilizers, “We have no fertilizer now”. To cope with this lack, they turn to organic fertilizers, but to do this they have to expose the animals themselves to the threat of insecurity. Therefore, these farmers advocate transforming agriculture, intensifying production, producing for sale, rather than being content with subsistence farming.