No matter what she says, Theresa May won’t contest the next election

Asked in Japan whether she planned to resign as Conservative leader in 2019, Theresa May replied that, on the contrary, she planned to lead the Conservatives to the next election, which, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, would be held in 2022. Her answer was met with despair among the Conservatives, delight among the Labour Party and gasps from the commentary community. But what exactly does it mean?

The short answer is “not much”. She may have said that out of convenience. Both of her predecessors, Tony Blair and David Cameron, set departure dates and got themselves into trouble. It’s better to make an unrealistic claim (“I want to keep going forever”, said Margaret Thatcher) than to state your deadline and give your fellow politicians another excuse to manipulate the succession.