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Ongoing threats
The first threat is Possible splinter group Other senior leaders and members may not agree with the disbandment.
Most JI members are likely to respond to the call to disband. Not only has this statement been approved by a large number of respected authorities, but also, due to reforms to the recruitment process and internal policing system, most JI members recruited in the past decade are well disciplined and obedient.
However, some radical factions within JI may disagree. In fact, there is precedent for such factions acting independently.
In 2019, Imarudin took advantage of the sudden power vacuum following the arrest of longtime leader Para Wijayanto to plan attacks — something that had been banned by the JI since 2011. His faction planned attacks on shops owned by Chinese-Indonesians in Banten, West Java and East Java, defrauding more than 260 million rupiah ($16,060) and buying two guns before his arrest.
second The threat is effort Infiltrating folk religious organizations and to build support for the establishment of an Islamic state in Indonesia.
Over the past decade, JI’s strategy has shifted from violence to evangelism. As early as 2010, some JI scholars said that “if the goal is to establish an Islamic state, then ground-based groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front have made greater progress than JI.”
Eventually, JI realized it did not need to lead da’wah activities. It has been releasing top JI members from its organizational structure and putting them in community leadership roles. The most notable example is Ahmad Zain-An-Najah, a member of Indonesia’s top clerical body, the Ulema Council, who was arrested in 2021 for links to JI.
Even if the organization ceases operations, JI can continue to carry out independent propaganda activities and promote JI’s extremist ideology.
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