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Black swan events are atypical events that were not expected or predictable despite our efforts to understand them. Similarly, when things have already happened, humans tend to explain them logically, even if we only reveal our confirmation bias. For example, the last global pandemic was explained on multiple occasions as if it was a completely predictable event, with terrible harmful effects, but also huge business opportunities.
Taking Guatemala as an example, when the next large-scale disaster strikes, event management in the broad sense could be a huge transformation opportunity, while for other sectors it could be a business opportunity. There is a prediction that, strictly speaking, should not be a black swan, but in reality, that is because most of us are not aware of it. This prediction is based on the earthquake that will affect Guatemala City and shows that we may face thousands of deaths, tens of thousands of buildings destroyed, and an additional impact: about 20 million cubic meters of rubble.
Only the management of fragments requires a national plan, which should be formulated at least in a general way, because this event will happen, but we do not know whether it will happen tonight or in ten or a hundred years. From this perspective, without intending to demonize the swan, we can ask ourselves whether it makes sense to prepare for unpredictable events when we do little in the face of foreseeable events and when events lead to the collapse of the country’s basic systems, such as the deliberate destruction of road networks, health systems or security systems due to the neoliberal model that still holds hegemony.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb suggests that, given the impossibility of predicting black swans, risk should be managed by diversification, taking conservative positions, and analyzing consequences rather than probabilities. In this case, we can view the Guatemalan state as a dysfunctional institution whose core problem is neoliberalism that prevents effective management, as privatization is based on the permanent destruction of public affairs.
(frasepzp1)
In this sense, as an example, the state cannot postpone assistance to vulnerable groups and programs to reduce extreme poverty. At the same time, this requires quality education to create safe areas, accessible health care, basic services and overall security. This goes against our model where security, health, basic services and education are provided for those who can pay for them. Reducing this multidimensional vulnerability is a way to predict the next black swan.
For the country as a whole, the previous reflections touched upon the root causes: poverty and inequality are the determinants of vulnerability. Unfortunately, the shadow of neoliberalism has prevented us from developing a water law, a comprehensive territorial planning system or other instruments that would provide the country with a truly comprehensive risk management mechanism that would provide a mechanism to deal with both everyday risks and bad black swans.
In the current situation, predatory elites, entrenched state factions, and the still active “corruption pact” among MPs and other institutions may be eager for a black swan, a major crisis that generates opportunities to destabilize the government, distract attention from the central issues, and take advantage of the errors in the balance of power to exhaust the ordinary people.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that given the impossibility of staging a coup, the intimidators need a destabilizing scenario. The bad news is that everyday life is also heavy and there are already signs of disappointment that have not been addressed with proper communication and action to produce the effects people expect, and for whom decency and strategic vision are not enough. People expect results and I strongly hope that this government can show them what it’s like to manage everyday affairs or when the next black swan occurs, which can make or break any government.
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