Arab energy experts predict future of sustainable alternatives – Arab News Agency

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies published a study by Arab energy expert Dr. Adnan Shihab El-Din, a visiting fellow and senior researcher at the institute, on “The current state and future possibilities of the sustainable energy industry”. The study examines the current development and investment in clean alternative energy, as well as the rapid growth from 2023 to the 2030s, and the challenges that alternative development policies may face. Finally, he talks about what he calls “surprise factors” in energy transitions. The study is based on research from a group of the most important global energy institutions.

Shihab El-Din, a male doctor, said that by 2023, global investment in “alternatives” will total $1.8 trillion, and the International Energy Agency expects this figure to rise to $2 trillion by the end of 2024. The most extensive activity and interest is in the electric vehicle sector, with investment in this sector reaching $634 billion in 2003, an increase of about 36% over the previous year.

On the other hand, indicators show that investment in the remaining alternatives grew more slowly over the same period, increasing by only about 8%, or $623 billion.

As expected in an industry as broad as energy alternatives, some sectors are expanding faster than others, such as: “Hydrogen; Carbon separation, collection and storage; and Water reservoirs.”

China ranked first in the energy transition investment stage, reaching $676 billion, accounting for 38% of the global total investment. The United States’ investment increased to about $303 billion, while Europe’s total investment reached about $340 billion. These investments include: about $135 billion in clean energy supply chains.

It is worth noting that countries around the world today invest twice as much in clean energy as they do in fossil fuels. Investment in the solar industry exceeds the value of investment in any other power generation sector.

It is worth noting that solar and wind power will grow rapidly in 2023, reaching an all-time high of about 67% in 2022.

As for the activities of various countries in the alternative field in 2023, 75% of the world’s new sustainable energy will come from China, which in turn accounts for a quarter of the global increase.

By 2023, Europe could add around 56 GW of solar power, or around 16% more than Europe’s previous potential.

The global wind industry added 115 GW of new capacity, a record high. China accounted for about 66% of this growth. It is worth noting that the wind energy available in China is now comparable to that available in the US and European market countries.

Information shows that although Europe has the largest share of global offshore wind farms (about 12%), the European wind energy industry has a power generation capacity of 32 GW, while Chinese wind farms have a power generation capacity of 37 GW.

This is what has been built so far. Information and research from 2024 shows that alternative fuel electric energy construction is expected to continue to grow rapidly between 2030 and 2050. Green hydrogen fuel, which has no carbon emissions, is expected to play an important role in heavy industry and transportation.

The zero-emission scenario also foresees a drop in oil demand of about 75%. But it is important to note that the scenario for zero emissions in 2050 contains a large number of “uncertainties” that must be taken into account. These mysterious factors include, for example, the reluctance of some countries to implement multiple alternatives at the time specified for them and the capacity planned for them, political variables in some countries, the commitment of some political parties to a policy. Whether zero emissions are achieved by the middle of this century, influential groups in some countries setting zero-emission policies and imposing economic burdens on certain sections of society, as has happened with European farmers in the past few months, and the support of far-right parties for farmers’ demonstrations and sit-ins, differences in costs and prices of alternative materials and mechanisms between producing countries, and trade disputes between industrialized countries resorting to “tariff” policies, which the EU and the US have recently begun to do with Chinese electric vehicles and solar equipment.

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Given the commitment to zero-emission policies and the increase or persistence of the above barriers, to what extent is the alternative industry likely to grow?

Dr. Shihab El-Din expects that the alternative energy industry will continue to expand, but at the same time warns of the difficulties faced in the energy transition phase, which delays the implementation of projects within the specified time and set capacity for them.

Solar energy is expected to dominate electricity generation by 2050, and technological research in this field is being carried out in full swing, so that technological advancement in the solar energy field is proceeding as planned and on schedule.

In the wind energy sector, significant growth is expected in the future, especially in offshore wind stations.

But the authors note that at the same time, wind, hydro and geothermal energy must be added to get things back on track in the alternative energy sector, which would require increasing the gains made in those three sectors by about 13% over the past five years.

One of the important factors in the energy transition process is the improvement of the rationalization of energy consumption.

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The challenges of energy transformation also include:

Depending on natural variables, solar power (and to a lesser extent wind power) sometimes requires support and reliance on fossil fuels. Of course, if reliance on fossil fuels is repeated, this will mean that the possibility of achieving zero emissions is reduced.

Storing energy with batteries is still very expensive, and the industry still faces several challenges and multiple negative impacts on the environment.

There are many positive aspirations for green hydrogen, but it has so far remained expensive, so a sustainable fuel had to be found to support it.

The alternatives industry still faces the above barriers, preventing it from moving at the pace needed to achieve zero emissions. Also hindering the creation of alternatives are the use of land and the longevity of certain projects.

At the same time, it is costly to quickly address the above challenges. This in turn means that the rapid development of alternatives will largely depend on developed economies. It will also require the use of a “multiple clean energy basket” including nuclear power, low-emission fuels, etc.

Dr. Shihab El-Din noted that there is growing interest in small nuclear reactors playing an important role in the “alternative energy basket.” The importance of these small reactors is that multiple reactors can be built at one site to provide power for heavy industry, or to provide electricity to remote areas.

Recently, more and more specialized companies have shown interest in building this type of reactor. In fact, there are two operating stations in Russia and China. There are two other reactors under construction, one in Russia, built on a ship, and the other in Shandong, China. There are two more reactors; one is being built in Argentina and the other in China. In addition to these, there are a number of other small reactors that are in preliminary planning. In terms of cost, obtaining official approval or design.

The importance of small reactors is to provide continuous electrical energy without interruption, just like solar energy. The characteristic of small nuclear reactors is that they can flexibly provide electrical energy to the end consumer. These reactors are known for their low carbon emissions. It is also relatively cheap.

Walid Kaduri

Iraqi economic expert

London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper