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On July 6, 2024, a treaty was adopted in Niamey to establish the “Alliance for the Sahel” alliance, which unites Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.yes The summit of the Union’s Heads of State marked a decisive step towards the departure of these three countries from ECOWAS. Even as the West African sub-regional bloc continues to work towards its return to the community, a split between the two entities seems increasingly inevitable and could disrupt the dynamics of political and institutional integration in the South African “West”.
This was expected a few months ago.yes On July 6, the Summit of Heads of State of the Alliance for the Sahel was held in Niamey, marking the establishment of the “AES” alliance by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in accordance with the common will of the three countries. In September 2023, a collective defense framework will be established.
“The heads of state decided to take further steps towards greater integration among the member states. To this end, they adopted a treaty establishing an alliance between Burkina Faso, the Republic of Mali and the Republic of Niger, called the Alliance of the Sahel States, or AES.”
In addition to the formation of the federation, the three heads of state, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, Colonel Assimi Goita and General Abdulrahmane Tiyani, stressed the need to coordinate diplomatic actions and the importance of speaking with a “single voice and a common voice”. Pooling resources to build and integrate projects in strategic sectors such as agriculture and food security, energy and minerals, communications and telecommunications, and education and vocational training. They also decided to create the AES Investment Bank and set up a stabilization fund.
The breakup is about to be completed
Held in conjunction with the AES Heads of State Summit on the 65thth The Ordinary Session of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS held in Abuja on July 7, 2024 could have clearly noted the announcement of the withdrawal of the AES countries, and the decision of the leaders of the West African institution to continue dynamic discussions with the three countries on the desire of the countries concerned to avoid leaving the sub-regional grouping.
Recognizing the “lack of progress in the interaction with the authorities of the three countries,” the ECOWAS Assembly of Heads of State and Government decided to adopt a “more robust approach” and appointed Senegalese President Basilou Diomaye Faye, in collaboration with Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé, as coordinators of the ECOWAS-AES discussions.
Basilou Dimayet Faye, who has already met with transitional presidents Goita and Traoré during his visit to Mali and Burkina Faso on May 30, believes that the withdrawal of the AES countries from ECOWAS would be “the worst scenario and a great trauma for Pan-Africanism”. The legacy left to us by the founding fathers is our historical responsibility to protect and pass on to future generations.
But if the Senegalese president expresses optimism about reconciliation of positions between now and the end of the “notification” period for withdrawal, most analysts believe that the chances of the return of the ECOWAS countries are low. Moreover, for the military commanding the AES coalition, as emphasized in the speech and recorded in the final press release, the withdrawal from ECOWAS is “irrevocable and without delay”.
“Regarding ECOWAS, our heads of state made it clear in Niamey that the withdrawal of these three countries from ECOWAS is irrevocable and from this moment we must stop looking in the rearview mirror,” he declared on state television on Monday. Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdoulaye Diop.
Boubacar Bokum, a political analyst at the Senegal Center for Strategic Studies, said the path taken by the leaders of the AES countries is a path of no return as he believes that ECOWAS has been arrogant towards the three countries, demonstrating its inability to move towards economic integration.
“We are not isolated, nor have we abandoned the spirit of federalism and solidarity among peoples that was advocated by the founders of ECOWAS. On the contrary, AES is the embryo of the new Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), driving the development of the United States of Africa,” he asserted.
What is cohabitation?
If the leaders of the African Union and ECOWAS are far from reaching a compromise that would allow Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to remain in the West African sub-regional community, they are aware, on the one hand and on the other, of the need for peaceful coexistence between the two neighborhoods that share the same geographical space.
“We remain open to working with our neighbours and other organisations with whom we share this space and with whom we are destined to live. We must maintain discussions with others to make progress,” declared Minister Abdoulaye Diop. “In any case, in the integration process, everyone has gains and losses. But we must work to minimise the impact on the population and this is what our authorities are working on,” assured the head of Mali’s foreign affairs.
The ECOWAS Assembly of Heads of State and Government and the mediation mission assigned to President Diomaye Faye, who will be supported by President Faure Gnassingbé, are also preparing to change the nature of the institution’s relations with the member States of the African Union after their withdrawal from the federation takes effect in January 2025. West African leaders have therefore asked the Commission to prepare for them a forward-looking emergency plan to “respond to all possible scenarios in relations with AES countries”, taking into account the requirements of article 91 of the 1993 ECOWAS Treaty, as amended.
In the aftermath of the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS, the President of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Aliu Touré, mentioned at the opening of the Abuja Summit on July 7 that it is possible for nationals of these three countries to take steps to obtain visas before travelling in the sub-region and ultimately allow them to benefit from ECOWAS facilities, freely reside or start businesses in different countries and then comply with the laws of different countries.
Analyst Ousmane Bamba, moderator of the Kiunou Forum, believes that if ECOWAS countries adopt such measures, it will actually lead to the AES alliance countries adopting the principle of reciprocity.
“You can get a divorce and keep the furniture. We are interested in getting along,” he said, citing the importance of the AES airspace to flights from the subregion to Europe, including that implementing a circumvention would result in a real increase in ticket costs.
Sociologist Brehima Elie Dicko stressed the need to review the ECOWAS agreement on the free movement of people and goods to reach an agreement, as 84% of Malians abroad are settled in ECOWAS countries. He warned: “If we leave ECOWAS, we must reach an agreement with the member states so that the people living in these countries do not become victims of the measures that ECOWAS may be asked to take.”
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