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Higher education continues to pay off, but earnings gains have been shrinking compared with those with only a secondary education, and the difference is even smaller if only the youngest are considered. Last year, the extra compensation in graduates’ wages was set at 49%, well below the average of 71% in 2011; the reality is worse for young workers (unemployment remains high at 7.4% in December, compared with 6.6% for the country as a whole), with the course guaranteeing them only around 34% more on average than those who don’t study.
Nonetheless, the course is important when it comes to finding work, with the unemployment rate for higher education graduates below the overall rate of 5.3% and well below the 9% recorded for 25 to 34-year-olds. Job opportunities requiring a master’s degree qualification are “increasingly important”, with a sharp increase from 2022 onwards: from 35.6% in January 2022 to 38.5% in December 2023.
The State of the Nation 2024, published today by the José Neves Foundation (FJN), reveals that “for the population aged 18 to 64, the additional gain of higher education over secondary education will increase by 49% by 2023”. “Nevertheless, this value has been decreasing over the past decade” and “for the younger population between 25 and 34, the wage advantage is 34%”, concludes the FJN in a study published today in the National Statistics Institute. In the country, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market can also be seen. The conclusion is: “In Portugal, women and workers with higher education are the groups where artificial intelligence can have a greater impact”, specifically: in the case of women, 15.1% are in occupations with high vulnerability (functions that can be replaced by AI) and 5.9% in occupations with low vulnerability (ability of AI to complement their work). “For men, these values are 9.4% and 6.5%, respectively. In terms of age, the most vulnerable group is those between 25 and 34, with 14.7% of workers in this group.”
“By 2024, in addition to updating employment, education and skills data, the State of the Nation shows the growing importance of higher education in terms of the employability and wage returns of Portuguese people”, stresses the institute’s founder. For José Neves, special attention must be paid to the impact of artificial intelligence on the national job market and the increasing digitalization of business structures, a factor that has proven to be “transformative in the reorganization of work”.
Technical and professional courses are in demand
The analysis also shows that workers with a salary of more than 2,000 euros are most vulnerable to the challenges posed by artificial intelligence (24.3%), especially in the fields of finance and insurance, consulting and information and communication, but they are also the ones who are most able to cope with the challenges posed by artificial intelligence. Using it can significantly increase their productivity, on the other hand there are more advantages, reflected in the possibility of supplementing functions, especially in education. “For workers in professional groups such as administrative staff (36%) and technicians and mid-level occupations (30%), artificial intelligence may make their jobs more vulnerable and more likely to be replaced,” the study shows.
Even so, digitalization continues to prove to be an ally of productivity, with the FJN noting that a large number of companies have joined the ship since 2019, increasing the number of companies that already have a medium or advanced level of digitalization to 61%. “The larger the company, the higher the digitalization index. The index is also associated with higher productivity and higher wages. Among young people, the digital intensity of employment remains high, especially among higher education graduates.” This is also reflected in teleworking, especially among young people, “especially masters and PhDs”, and among the majority of those who have transferred their work to home, “especially in the fields of management (49.7%), teaching (61, 9%) and ICT (80.5%)”.
According to FJN diagnosis, the demand for technical and professional courses has been increasing since it was launched in 2014 and promoted by the Polytechnic, with the current number of registered people reaching 21,263, and the choice of CTeSP courses is more frequent among graduates of vocational secondary education courses. . “Of the students registered, about 76% are from professional courses and 22% from science and humanities courses, among which courses related to technology and digitalization are the most popular: one-third of the registered students are from the five fields of education and training. National technical level.” A third of young people in secondary school receive this type of education, and the figures also show that a quarter of them eventually continue to higher education, a proportion that has risen from 15% to 24%, with an increase in demand in the fields of IT and electronics and automation.
The way forward
Starting with the diagnosis, the José Neves Foundation set about designing the goals the country must pursue to achieve its 2040 targets, outlining ambitious goals that include placing Portugal among the 10 EU countries with the most skilled and knowledge employment (we are currently in 17th place) and having at least a quarter of adults enrolled in lifelong education and training programs (currently 13.4%). Other targets are that a maximum of 15% of adults have a low level of education (over 40%), that two thirds of the young population have a degree and that at least 90% of new graduates are employed (78.8%).
How to get there? FJN highlights nine ways of working that can make a difference:
- Young people are encouraged to pursue higher education, whether it is courses leading to higher degrees (Bachelor’s, Master’s and PhD) or advanced professional and technical courses (CTeSP).
- Promote professional education within civil society and the job market, highlighting its significant contribution to the success of Portugal’s digital transformation.
- Continue to encourage students to transition from vocational education to higher education. Develop initiatives to bring education and training institutions closer to the job market so that education and training services can be adjusted to their actual needs.
- Implement strategies to recover the PISA 2022 results and invest in concrete measures for the new research cycle in 2025, with a particular focus on science.
- Create conditions for Portugal to become more attractive for companies in the high-tech sector.
- Companies are encouraged to digitize and adopt hybrid working models to increase productivity and wages.
- Develop mechanisms to support companies and workers in their digital transformation as they introduce AI into the labor market.
- Develop strategies to mitigate occupational vulnerability to AI.
- Promote ongoing training and professional requalification to equip workers for new technological realities.
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