The Labour Party at the gate of Downing Street

Britain goes to legislative elections on Thursday, preparing to begin a new chapter in British history: Labour is the favorite to oust the Conservatives, who are deeply unpopular after 14 turbulent years in power.

Brexit heartbreak, chaotic management of the coronavirus pandemic, soaring prices and deepening poverty, a run-of-the-mill public hospital system, a waltz of prime ministers… a string of crises since 2010 has fuelled a thirst for change and, as the Conservatives have acknowledged in recent days, their fight is not to win but to limit the majority promised to Labour.

Any drama aside, the no-nonsense 61-year-old former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be tasked by King Charles III on Friday with forming a government after taking his party back to the centre-left and promising a return to “Serious” In power.

“Britain can now turn to a new chapter. After 14 years of chaos and decline, a new era of hope and opportunity”The MP, who only entered politics nine years ago, made the pledge before voting began, urging Britons to vote.

Historical majority?

Some 46 million voters were called to the polls to renew the 650 seats in the lower house of parliament. Each representative is chosen by a single member vote, which favours the main political parties.

Polls will be open from 7am to 10pm local time (6am to 9pm GMT). Preliminary polls will be open from the close until the early hours.

How big will Labour’s victory be, and how big will its defeat be after Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been unable to generate any momentum after 20 months in power? How will a breakthrough by the anti-immigrant and anti-establishment Reform Britain Party, led by former Brexit champion Nigel Farage, translate into the polls?

In the polls, Labour has an average of 40% voting intention, compared to 22% for the Conservatives, 16% for the Reform Party and 10% for the Liberal Democrats (centrists).

According to the latest seat forecasts from the YouGov research institute, this would mean Labour would get 431 MPs and the Conservatives would get 102 – a majority not seen in the UK since 1832. The Liberal Democrats would win 78 seats and the Reform Party would pick up three, allowing Nigel Farage to win a seat in Parliament after seven failed attempts.

Rain and mistakes

For Rishi Sunak, the fifth Conservative prime minister in 14 years, these elections mark the end of a campaign that had become a sticking point.

However, he tried to take the initiative in late May by calling voters in July, rather than waiting until the fall as expected. But his party seemed surprised when the disastrous image of the announcement in the pouring rain and without an umbrella dissipated.

The 44-year-old former investment banker and finance minister has made numerous gaffes and appeared to lack political acumen, cutting short an appearance at celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings and delaying a response to suspicions in his camp of fraudulent betting on election dates.

His strategy has largely consisted of accusing Labor of wanting to increase taxes, and then in recent days warning Labor of the risks. “Supermajority” This would deprive the Labour Party of its power to fight back and, in effect, admit its own defeat.

Keir Starmer, by contrast, has highlighted his humble origins – his mother is a nurse and his father is a toolmaker – in contrast to his millionaire rival. In an effort to shake off right-wing attacks and forget the expensive plans of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, he has pledged to impose very tight controls on public spending without raising taxes.

It is counting on a return to stability, state intervention and infrastructure investment to revive growth, which should restore public services that have declined since austerity measures in the early 2010s.

He wants to remain firm on immigration and move closer to the European Union – without joining it. But he has warned that he has no “Magic Wand” Britons have shown in polls that they have no illusions about the prospects for change.

If his caution has sometimes led to accusations of a lack of ambition, Labour has found support among business and the right-wing media.

Following in the footsteps of the Financial Times and The Economist, tabloid The Sun on Wednesday called for a vote for Labour.

“The time for change has come”” said the popular newspaper, owned by tycoon Rupert Murdoch, which switched to Labour in 1997 and proved crucial to Tony Blair’s victory.