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The National Rally took a commanding lead in the first round of historic legislative elections on Sunday, according to initial estimates by pollsters, which could open the door to power for the far right for the first time under the Fifth Republic.
The party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen and their allies has 34.2-34.5% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front (New Popular Front), which has 28.5-29.1% of the vote, well ahead of the 20.5% of the camp of Emmanuel Macron, which is -21.5% according to estimates published by Ipsos and Ifop at 8:00 pm, in a vote that saw a sharp increase in participation. The Republicans, who are not allied with the RN, have 10%.
The first forecasts of future National Assembly seats need to be made with great caution, with the National Assembly and its allies expected to have an absolute majority, even an absolute majority, at the end of the second round of voting next Sunday.
The political landscape should be profoundly shaken after the head of state unexpectedly announced the dissolution of the National Assembly on the evening of his candidate’s disastrous defeat in the European elections on 9 June.
But 577 votes are actually needed to elect as many representatives as possible, and the reconfiguration will depend on the dynamics between now and the second round next Sunday, as well as on possible exits and voting indications in each constituency. Especially since the second round should be marked by a record number of potential triangles.
‘Large gathering’
“With rallies across the country, it’s time for big, visible Democratic and Republican rallies for round two”” , Emmanuel Macron affirmed in a written statement sent to the press at 8:00 pm. “High engagement” WHO “It demonstrates the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation”. “Their democratic choice places an obligation on us”he added after bringing together leaders of political parties that have been in power with him since 2017.
Despite the cracks that have been appearing in the Republican Front against the far right for years, the President of the Republic has not yet fully clarified what attitude to take in the event of a showdown between the RN and the NFP or the triangular faction. So far, the tenors in his camp seem to prefer “Neither RN nor La France is insoumise”was roundly rebuked by the left and criticized even within his own camp.
On the left, ecologists, socialists, and communists announced they would withdraw if another candidate could do a better job of stopping the Republicans.
At the LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon asked voters not to vote for Le Penists but did not talk about an exit. His party should clarify its position in the second round of elections on Sunday night.
With its best-ever result in the first round of voting, improving the existing record in European elections, the RN sees unprecedented prospects of obtaining a relative or absolute majority on 7 July.
The smooth face of its young president, Jordan Bardella, 28, personifies the Lepenist party, which wants to change the test within a week.
If Jordan Bardella takes over Matignon, it will be the first time since World War II that a far-right government has led France. However, the RN president has warned that he will only accept the prime ministership if his party has an absolute majority.
It would also be an unprecedented coexistence between pro-European President Emmanuel Macron and a government more hostile to the EU, which could spark sparks over the prerogatives of the two executive heads, especially on foreign and defense issues.
Conference obstructed?
Another possible scenario is a blocked parliament, with no coalition possible between polarised camps, which could leave France in uncharted territory.
Despite seemingly irreconcilable differences, the left managed to hold together after the dissolution. But differences between the LFI and its partners, particularly over the leadership dispute of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, soon resurfaced and often parasitized the coalition’s campaigns in the form of homages to Léon Blum’s Popular Front of 1936.
In the interim, nothing seems to slow down the Nationalist Party’s momentum in its campaigns for purchasing power and against immigration: neither the ambiguity over the repeal of Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform, nor the controversy over multinational corporations, nor the sulfuric rhetoric of some far-flung candidates.
According to the polling agency, at the end of the day, a large number of people poured into the polling stations and the turnout should reach at least 65% of the registered people. That is, much higher than the 47.51% in 2022, but lower than the 67.9% in the last legislative election organized after its dissolution in 1997.
Overseas, outgoing deputies from the centrist Liot group or invested by the NFP are leading in Guadeloupe and Guyana. In Polynesia, autonomist candidate Morani Freibaud was elected in the first round. He was the first elected among 577 new deputies and will also be the first Marquesan to enter the National Assembly.
In Martinique, the RN succeeded in getting one of the candidates to qualify for the second round, a first for the sector. But with less than 10 percent support, his chances of being elected next week are slim.
At the polls, many voters expressed their excitement about these early elections that day.
“I want to regain some calm because since the European elections everything has reached a worrying level. But we must continue to fight for what we believe in”Roxane Lebrun, 40, a native of Bordeaux, told AFP. In Saint-Étienne, policeman Christophe, 22, feared the vote could “further divide the population”*.
In the northern region of Marseille, Nabil Agueni, 40, travelled despite not going to a polling station for the European elections: “As long as we have a choice, it’s better to vote,” said Theo, 30, who works in the cultural field in Rennes. Among his entourage, “many people who don’t usually vote went to vote.”.
In Rennes and Lyon, many shops in the city center protected their windows to avoid excesses after the results were announced.
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