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Citizens of France, one of the most important countries in the West, the European Union and NATO, will vote this weekend to elect a new parliament.
The vote is expected to deal another blow to an already shaken President Emmanuel Macron, with both the far right and far left expected to succeed, with ramifications across the continent.
Why are these elections being held now?
France will hold parliamentary elections in 2022, a few months after the presidential election, and Macron will return to the Elysee Palace for five years.
The snap election, to be held in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, is closely associated with him, as he called it after his disastrous defeat in the European Parliament elections in early June.
There, his centrist coalition received just under 15% of the vote, while his rival, far-right populist Marine (Marine) Le Pen and her “National Front” were in undisputed first place with more than 30%.
Many saw this election as a gamble, with Macron effectively asking the French whether this was the direction they wanted to go, or if the result in early June was just a fluke.
Did the gamble pay off?
Judging by the polls, not at all. In fact, the National Front is expected to get between 30% and 34% of the vote, while Macron’s “Together” will fight for around 20%. That would leave them without even a second place.
The recently formed new Popular Front — an unwieldy alliance of the Greens, the Social Democrats, and communist leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his “Invincible France” — is challenging the National Front with support close to 30 percent.
They have yet to decide on a candidate for prime minister if they win, and there has been daily verbal abuse between the parties during the campaign.
Still, that is nothing compared to the chaos in the once-dominant center-right Republicans (LR) – the party of former presidents such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy.
It looked like an old French comedy when party chairman Eric Ciotti went behind the backs of other party members to make a deal with the National Front after Macron announced the election, which led to other party leaders trying to oust him.
Not surprisingly, they currently have only seven percent approval rating.
How will this end?
Very good question. The problem is that the percentages above are not actually important because the 577 seats are not allocated proportionally.
Instead, candidates compete in 577 constituencies. So, although this is a national election, it is about local people and local issues.
If no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round, the two candidates with the most votes will face off in the second round on July 7.
To complicate matters further, any candidate who receives 12.5 percent of voters’ support in the first round also has a chance to advance to the second round.
In 2022, only seven districts out of a total of 577 had three candidates in the second round, but we can expect more this summer.
Therefore, expect a lot of deals to be done between the two sides before July 7. Everything will come down to tactical voting to block or promote the candidate of one party.
While Macron’s party may suffer defeat in many places, his voters could be key in the runoff, depending on whether they sway left or right.
Will anyone have a majority?
Although it is difficult to predict the outcome of the two rounds of actual 577 local elections, some predictions have been made. 289 seats are needed to gain a parliamentary majority.
The National Front, which currently holds 88 seats, is likely to exceed 200 seats, while the New Popular Front is close to or slightly above 200 seats.
Macron’s centrist party, on the other hand, could drop from its current 250 seats to fewer than 100.
Although the presidential party has not governed in parliament three times since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in France in the 1950s, this time we can see something completely new: no majority in parliament, no one person governs in parliament. One person has a functional majority.
This is probably the most likely scenario, as the three groups do not share a common position, making any coalition difficult.
What happens if Parliament does not get a majority?
Paralysis. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old National Front candidate for prime minister and a protégé of Marine Le Pen, has publicly stated that he can only govern if he has a majority. Macron could try to form some kind of “national coalition of the willing” with a technocratic prime minister.
Some say Christine Lagarde, the current president of the European Central Bank, could be that person.
Under the constitution, he is prohibited from calling new elections the following year.
Some form of transitional government might continue to function for a while, but it would not be able to pass laws, only budgets.
There are rumors that Macron may resign on his own initiative, plunging France into further chaos, although this is unlikely.
A vote of no confidence in him would be impossible, at least legally. The Summer Olympics begin in Paris on July 26, and for a man who desperately needs at least some athletic support, it can’t come soon enough.
Can the far right achieve an absolute victory?
Of course. Le Pen and Bardella have done a great job making the National Front more “acceptable” to a wider range of voters.
Many hope she will be more moderate when in power, like Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meroni and her Brothers of Italy party, which came to power in 2022.
But Le Pen is on the right of the political spectrum. A Russian bank has lent her money, she has previously expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin and she is instinctively anti-EU and anti-NATO.
If they come to power, they will introduce a stricter immigration policy, lower the retirement age to 62, cut VAT on energy, challenge France’s contribution to the EU budget and end the automatic right of foreigners born in France to French citizenship.
What does this mean for the EU?
Well, all these reforms cost money. Markets are likely to get nervous as financial instability in other eurozone economies has repercussions beyond France’s borders.
It is estimated that the National Front plan could easily increase the already large budget deficit from the current 5% of GDP to more than 6%.
This is important because in early June the European Commission placed France under excessive deficit procedure because its fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP exceeded 3% of the EU.
Brussels is expected to make clearer proposals in November, but the EU will seek austerity measures.
This is not the only potential point of conflict with Brussels.
The far-right government may soon find itself in the spotlight of the European Union for subsidizing domestic companies, violating EU internal market rules, violating the EU electricity market and discriminating against other EU citizens.
What about foreign policy?
It is worth noting that France has a presidential system and foreign and security policies are mainly in the hands of Macron.
For example, he still represents the country at important summits of the European Union, NATO and the Group of Seven.
Therefore, political support for Ukraine and further EU enlargement will continue.
However, there may be problems in the future in financing various foreign activities, such as military and financial aid to Kiev, as it requires parliamentary approval.
There is also a “cooling effect.” With parliament not particularly interested in supporting the war effort or admitting new members to organisations such as the EU and NATO, Macron may have less room to manoeuvre.
To some extent, he risks “political death” in the last two years of his term, unable to advance any major plans, such as deepening EU integration or French involvement in Ukraine.
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