Early legislative elections (first round): Numbers that don’t deceive! …

On Saturday, June 29, 2024, the day to celebrate the 40th anniversary of internal self-government status, Polynesians are called to vote as part of the first round of early legislative elections, 24 hours ahead of the mainland.

Just two years after independent candidates Taverni Huilatira – Temate Legaike, Steve Chayou and Mereana Reid-Abelote won in each of the three constituencies – voters will no doubt be watching closely where the policy is being implemented locally by the new majority led by President Brosun.

So, stop or continue? We will have to wait until the evening of the second round on July 6 to find out. Unless the reorganization of the autonomists can overturn the table at the end of the first round? …

However, two years ago, the political environment was completely different. The majority at that time (the Tapra) no longer had a saintly aura among the people. Several executives even withdrew from the movement, raising concerns about vote fragmentation. This is indeed what happened, and thanks to the blue stars and stripes, so much was not expected to regain control and power.

A look back at the data from the 2022 election

In the first round of legislative elections in 2022, participation in French Polynesia was only 42.21%, compared to 53.52% in the second round. As in mainland France, given the risks, it is certain that participation will be much greater this time.

At the end of the first round, Nicole Bouteau (then Tapura huiraatira) was well ahead in the first constituency, with 12,970 votes ahead of Tematai Legayic, who received 6,223 votes, and both qualified for the second constituency.

In the second race, Tepuarauri Teriitahi (Tapura) also performed well but had a smaller lead, totaling 8,660 votes to Steeve Chailloux’s 7,506 votes.

Finally, in the third round, candidate Tumatai was left behind by the outgoing deputy Moethai Bradson (9,128 votes to 9,761) by a few hundred votes, thanks in particular to the contribution of the Faa Commune, which was afraid of it.

We all know the rest! Logically, in the absence of a transfer of votes from the Autonomists to the three finalists, the division largely favors the young separatists.

unity is strength

However, if we add up the votes of the Autonomists at the end of the first round, the results could be very different. Thus, we get 20,404 votes in the first constituency, 16,508 votes in the second constituency and 17,255 votes in the third constituency. A total of 54,167 votes. Proving that the department played dirty tricks in Tapura, its three finalists ended up with only 46,635 votes at the end of voting.

The recently created Autonomist platform, which designates Morani Frebeau as first vote, Nicole Sankel as second and Pascal Haiti as third, should theoretically eliminate this split of votes. We can then check if 1+1 equals 2. If so, the total or partial overthrow of the outgoing representatives could be interpreted as a serious warning to the Tavernier majority and the Blazeson government from the perspective of the 2028 territory.

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