Threats to the goose that lays the golden eggs

Tourism has been the engine of the Portuguese economy over the past decade. It was this sector that, thanks to the intervention of the Troika, brought us out of the financial and economic crisis and reversed austerity, and it is also the underpinning of the recent recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Last year, Portugal received a record 26.5 million non-resident tourists, 7.7% more than in 2019, the last year before the pandemic, and 19.2% more than in 2022, according to the National Statistics Institute. 30 million guests were received, and the total number of overnight stays exceeded 77 million. Half of Portugal’s economic growth in 2023 came from the contribution of tourism, and the impact of tourism on GDP has never been greater, reaching 12.7%, exceeding the European average, equivalent to nearly 40 billion euros. Remarkable, a real goose laying golden eggs, born at the right time.

This year is expected to perform as well as 2023, or even better, and the known data will drive this ambition. In the first six months of this year, the number of foreign tourists entering Portugal increased by 7.5%, making it the best first half of the year in Portuguese tourism history.

The question that arises is how far and how tourism in Portugal can develop, because if so far the focus has been on the benefits and the discussion of the removal of obstacles to growth – see the rhetoric surrounding the decision for the new Lisbon airport – in recent times, in fact, following what has happened in some parts of Europe, criticism of the intensity of tourism in some regions has begun to emerge.

Lisbon, which has a higher density of tourists than Barcelona, ​​with 10 visitors per inhabitant, compared to nine in the Catalan city, has held demonstrations and approved an end to local staycations by 2028 because of the impact on house prices, even though the proportion of homes used for business is only a quarter of the registered homes in the Portuguese capital. Porto is also one of the most overloaded cities, and the Algarve also has a high overload intensity compared to European regions that have introduced containment measures.

What we are seeing is a lack of management, beyond responding to the crisis – as happened when trying to respond to rising house prices. Supply has caused problems in some of our cities, such as Lisbon, while in other cities next door it is almost non-existent, such as Almada.

More than just the tools that constitute the tourist tax (more budgetary than management), there must be integrated planning at municipal and regional level, allowing, for example, diversification and the adequacy of stream services, such as water supply or health. This is so that the sector can continue to develop and not be hampered by the inevitable political crises that will end up like the housing problem, unresolved, and lead to the death of the goose that lays the golden eggs.

It is not a good idea to ignore what has happened and think it only happens outside. Because someone will remember that tourists do not vote.