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What South Korea wants
Seoul’s goal is twofold. First, it hopes to increase the number of North Koreans crossing the border by obtaining a large amount of external information that will make more North Koreans eager to move to South Korea.
After North Korea closed its borders during the pandemic, the number of successful defectors dropped sharply from 2020. But after border controls were relaxed again in 2023, the number of successful defectors to South Korea nearly tripled to 196 per year. Most recently, on August 20, the Seoul military announced that it had captured a North Korean soldiers He crossed the border – his second defection in two weeks.
Moreover, Seoul anticipates that the influx of information could spark a popular uprising in North Korea. Such an uprising could force the regime to capitulate, allow its people more freedoms and human rights, or overthrow the regime.
But in my view, these scenarios are unlikely to become reality. After all, Pyongyang’s tight control over outside information has so far enabled the regime to survive.
Seoul’s new vision for unification is provocative and may not be welcomed by Pyongyang. It may even encourage Kim Jong-un’s regime to tighten information controls, endangering the lives of ordinary North Koreans.
Yoon Yong-chul’s efforts to develop a new vision for Korean reunification date back several months. In March, South Korea’s presidential office announced its intention to update the National Reunification Plan, which has served as the government’s official reunification policy since 1994.
The plan includes three stages: seeking reconciliation and cooperation with North Korea, establishing a Korean federation, and creating a unified Korean peninsula.
While the exact nature of the update is unclear, the decision to revise the existing uniform formula is not surprising. Since its introduction three decades ago, there has been no progress beyond the first phase.
Seoul’s decision to review and update its reunification plan comes after Kim Jong-un reportedly gave up hope of reunification in January. In a speech to North Korea’s parliament, he said the constitution should be amended to designate the South as “theMain Enemy”.
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